{"id":1537,"date":"2007-04-04T00:51:00","date_gmt":"2007-04-04T06:51:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/04\/precedent-suggests-spaceport-tax-will-be-approved-but-this-election-has-already-bucked-historical-trends\/"},"modified":"2007-04-04T00:51:00","modified_gmt":"2007-04-04T06:51:00","slug":"precedent-suggests-spaceport-tax-will-be-approved-but-this-election-has-already-bucked-historical-trends","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2007\/04\/precedent-suggests-spaceport-tax-will-be-approved-but-this-election-has-already-bucked-historical-trends\/","title":{"rendered":"Precedent suggests spaceport tax will be approved, but this election has already bucked historical trends"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>If historical trends are an indicator, Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> will enact a 1\/4 percent gross receipts tax increase to help fund Spaceport America<\/a>, but this election, in the case of early and absentee ballots, has already bucked tradition. <\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

So the reality is that the election is too close to call.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe knew this would be a close election and that\u2019s proven true, as tonight the vote is simply to close to call,\u201d Gov. Bill Richardson<\/a> said Tuesday night. \u201cWhat is clear is that the voters of Do\u00f1a Ana are both cautious with public investment and hopeful in seeking to create a high-tech, high-wage economy and improve math and science education for Southern New Mexico<\/st1:place>.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Unofficial results, with everything but provisional ballots counted, give spaceport tax supporters a 204-vote, 1.2-percent lead \u2013 8,781 votes to 8,577. But there are 541 provisional ballots yet to be dealt with, and they have the potential to change everything.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

County elections officials can\u2019t start accepting or rejecting those ballots until Thursday at 9 a.m., when the commission officially meets to allow the start of canvassing. Elections workers will spend Wednesday sorting through them and preparing to begin the final tally. They\u2019ll also rerun the unofficial numbers, said Elections Supervisor Lynn Ellins.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\n

Ellins predicted that, based on historical trends, roughly 200 provisional ballots will be rejected. If that happens, tax opponents will need about 80 percent of those that are counted to win the election, but Ellins pointed out that the provisional tally is, historically, roughly proportionate to the rest of the vote.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

If that trend plays out in this election, the tax will be approved.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But several people pointed out to me that the results of early and absentee ballots are also, generally, proportionate to the election-day total.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

That wasn\u2019t the case in this election.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Some 53 percent of those who cast ballots on Tuesday voted in favor of the tax, but only 41 percent of early voters and 48 percent of absentee voters supported the tax.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Still, there was a sense of optimism among tax proponents who were at the Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename> Government<\/st1:placename> Center<\/st1:placetype><\/st1:place> until after 11 p.m. on Tuesday awaiting results.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It\u2019s better to be up 204 votes than down 204 votes,\u201d said Do\u00f1a Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re going to win this thing,\u201d said Commissioner Kent Evans<\/a>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

New Mexico Economic Development Secretary Rick Homans<\/a> wasn\u2019t ready to go that far. He said his office had prepared a news release to send out if the tax was approved and a second to send out if it was rejected.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cWe never considered the need for a third release,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Homans later released this statement in a news release:<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt looks like the election went very smoothly, but the results at this point are too close to call,\u201d he said. \u201cWhile there is strong support in Southern New Mexico<\/st1:place> for the spaceport project and the jobs that come with it, there is a concern about how to finance the project. We will continue to maintain the highest standards of fiscal responsibility, accountability and transparency if the vote turns out to be positive and we are able to move forward with Spaceport America<\/st1:country-region><\/st1:place>.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Tax opponents weren\u2019t at the government center by the time final results \u2013 minus provisional ballots, of course \u2013 were in, so I was unable to get comment.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Voter turnout, election operation, were impressive<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Even if all provisional ballots are rejected, voter turnout will top 18 percent. In a small, ballot-initiative election, that\u2019s rare, and it\u2019s unusual for Do\u00f1a<\/st1:placename> Ana<\/st1:placename> County<\/st1:placename><\/st1:place> voters to surprise with higher-than-expected turnout.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Whether they support or oppose the tax, a number of county voters are passionate about the issue. The turnout is impressive.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Also impressive is the way the election was run. There were few problems. Remember that, about a month ago, commissioners voted to more than double the number of polling places, forcing elections staffers to rework their entire plan for the election.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Considering that commissioners gave elections staff only 30 days to turn this from a small election to a full-scale operation, the Elections Bureau did an amazing job.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

It was even noticed by Richardson<\/st1:place><\/st1:city>.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s also clear that the election was run transparently and effectively,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

When will we know?<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

Ellins said he believes all provisional ballots will be counted by Friday evening. He predicted that about 75 will be tallied on Thursday, and it remains possible that we\u2019ll know whether the tax is approved on that day because, though some ballots will be left to count, it could become, at some point, mathematically impossible for the result to change.<\/p>\n

<\/o:p><\/p>\n

But that\u2019s only one possibility. We\u2019ll see what happens.<\/p>\n

\n

A prior version of this posting incorrectly stated the number of provisional ballots tax opponents would need to win the election.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

If historical trends are an indicator, Do\u00f1a Ana County will enact a 1\/4 percent gross receipts tax increase to help fund Spaceport America, but this election, in the case of early and absentee ballots, has already bucked tradition. So the reality is that the election is too close to call. \u201cWe knew this would be […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1537","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1537"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1537\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}