{"id":14489,"date":"2010-03-13T19:17:48","date_gmt":"2010-03-14T03:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=14489"},"modified":"2010-03-15T10:35:30","modified_gmt":"2010-03-15T17:35:30","slug":"analysts-martinez-impresses-domenici-disappoints-at-convention","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2010\/03\/analysts-martinez-impresses-domenici-disappoints-at-convention\/","title":{"rendered":"Martinez impresses with big convention win"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Susana<\/a>

Susana Martinez<\/p><\/div>\n

One analyst says the race is down to Martinez and Weh; another calls Domenici a \u2018wild card\u2019 because of his lead in polls<\/h4>\n

Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez<\/a> gained in stature at today\u2019s Republican Party preprimary nominating convention. Allen Weh<\/a> did what he needed to do. And Pete Domenici Jr.<\/a> is down but not necessarily out.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s how Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff analyzed the results following today\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n

Martinez won the support of 46.65 percent of delegates at the Republican convention. Weh finished second with 26.32 percent, followed by Janice Arnold-Jones<\/a> at 13.16 percent and Doug Turner<\/a> at 9.23 percent. Domenici finished last, with 4.61 percent of the vote.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe big surprise here is the margin of Susana Martinez\u2019s victory,\u201d Sanderoff said. \u201cThe second thing that stands out, besides her superb performance, is Pete Domenici\u2019s weak performance.\u201d<\/p>\n

If they want to stay on the ballot, candidates who don\u2019t pass the organizational test of winning the support of 20 percent of convention delegates are required by law to collect twice as many signatures as those who do win 20 percent. No candidate who failed to win 20 percent at the convention has ever come back to win the primary.<\/p>\n

Regardless, Arnold-Jones, Turner and Domenici all say they plan to stay in the race, which will require about 1,200 more signatures from each.<\/p>\n

Staying in the race may make more sense for Domenici than the other two, Sanderoff said. In one recent poll<\/a>, Domenici led the other candidates with 29.3 percent of the vote, while Martinez came in a distant second at 11.5 percent. Another poll<\/a> tested each of the GOP gubernatorial hopefuls against the Democrats\u2019 candidate, Diane Denish<\/a>, and found that only Domenici is anywhere near Denish in terms of support.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf ever there were a time that someone with 4 percent of the delegates could reasonably consider staying in the race, it would be now, but the Republican delegates have sent a very clear message that he is not their candidate,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

Garcia calls it a two-person race between Martinez and Weh<\/h3>\n

Political analyst Jose Garcia, whose NMSU government class conducted the poll that showed Domenici ahead of the other GOP candidates, disagreed. He said this is now a two-person race between Martinez and Weh.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think people are going to be listening very carefully to Susana\u2019s message, and I think they\u2019re going to be comparing it very carefully to Weh\u2019s message,\u201d Garcia said. \u201cThose two candidates have the ear of people.\u201d<\/p>\n

Asked if there was any scenario in which one of the other three could win the primary, Garcia said \u201canything is possible in politics,\u201d but he doesn\u2019t see Domenici, Arnold-Jones or Turner winning.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf it\u2019s a resounding victory for Susana to get nearly 50 percent, it was also a resounding defeat for Domenici,\u201d Garcia said.<\/p>\n

Martinez said in an interview that communication and meetings with small groups were the keys to winning the preprimary, and she plans to continue utilizing both.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis says that we have to keep working hard, and that the folks who were at the convention are very much wanting to unite,\u201d Martinez said. \u201cWe\u2019ll continue to work as though we\u2019re going to be the ones coming out of the primary and heading into the general.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a statement released by her campaign, Martinez also said convention delegates share her \u201cvalues of reform and accountability.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTogether, we can bring real change to\u00a0New Mexico\u00a0after eight years of the failed Richardson\/Denish Administration,\u201d the statement read.<\/p>\n

The target remains on Domenici\u2019s back<\/h3>\n

Sanderoff said Republicans who are supporting Martinez like her conservative credentials and believe she is the most electable in November. But he said Domenici will remain the one with a target on his back as long as he\u2019s leading in the polls.<\/p>\n

That is already apparent. In a prepared statement following today\u2019s vote, Weh mentioned Domenici but not Martinez.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith three candidates failing to make the cut, including Pete Domenici Jr., we are pleased to be on the ballot and moving toward Election Day,\u201d Weh said. \u201cThis campaign is the people\u2019s campaign, and we can\u2019t wait to get out of the convention hall and get back on the road.\u201d<\/p>\n

And the Democratic Party of New Mexico<\/a>, in a prepared statement, hammered Domenici, the \u201cself-described GOP frontrunner,\u201d for finishing last.<\/p>\n

\u201cFollowing today\u2019s last place finish, the question isn\u2019t whether Pete Domenici Jr. is still the GOP frontrunner \u2013 the question is whether he\u2019ll even remain in the race,\u201d said James Hallinan, Democratic Party spokesman. \u201cThis vote was a humbling reality check for Pete Domenici Jr. and a clear signal that New Mexico Republicans are now more fractured than ever.\u201d<\/p>\n

Nothing more than an \u2018informal straw vote\u2019<\/h3>\n

Domenici Campaign Director Doug Antoon played down the results of the convention vote, calling it an \u201cinformal straw vote\u201d and writing in an e-mail that Domenici passed the $300,000 mark in fundraising this week \u2013 his seventh in the race.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the Domenici campaign, the election is really just beginning,\u201d Antoon said. \u201cWe strongly suggest the Democrats take no solace from an informal straw vote. \u00a0All scientific polls to date show Domenici virtually even with the Democrat nominee.\u201d<\/p>\n

Sanderoff said if the primary election were held today, Domenici would probably win, but \u201cthat would be solely due to his family\u2019s name.\u201d Domenici\u2019s father is former U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Because the younger Domenici\u2019s support in polls is largely due to his father\u2019s name recognition, it might not be solid, Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe might have the highest but not the widest support,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

A news release from Arnold-Jones\u2019 campaign characterized her 13.16 percent as \u201ca strong third place showing,\u201d and Arnold-Jones said she already has more than enough signatures to stay in the race.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt was a more solid third than I expected. I am delighted,\u201d she said. \u201cEvery place I turn, we\u2019re making progress. People are listening to the message. They just may not have been the delegates.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI have a message. That\u2019s why I\u2019m running, and I\u2019m going to keep running,\u201d Arnold-Jones said.<\/p>\n

Turner said he also has already gathered the necessary signatures to stay in the race.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs an outsider, the expectation is that you\u2019re not going to have the support from all insiders,\u201d Turner said. \u201cYou would like to have support of people in your own party and support of the party machine, but I\u2019m not sure this convention is representative of New Mexico voters or New Mexico Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019m feeling pretty good,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Martinez gets \u2018instant credibility\u2019<\/h3>\n

The fact that Martinez won the convention, Sanderoff said, \u201cdemonstrates that she\u2019s well organized. You don\u2019t get half the delegates at the convention unless you work it.\u201d<\/p>\n

That doesn\u2019t always translate into a primary victory. Former Gov. Gary Johnson<\/a> finished third in the GOP preprimary in 1994, and he went on to win in June and November.<\/p>\n

But in many cases, a preprimary victory sparked momentum that carried a candidate to a primary win. Sanderoff and Garcia said Martinez will now have an easier time raising money, which will help her spread her message.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis will give her the opportunity to at least promote her victory and gain some instant credibility,\u201d Sanderoff said.<\/p>\n

While he\u2019s already counting out Domenici, Arnold-Jones and Turner, Garcia said it\u2019s impossible at this point to predict whether Weh or Martinez will win.<\/p>\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think this is over by any stretch of the imagination,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Sanderoff said it\u2019s too early to call it a two-person race.<\/p>\n

\u201cSusana impressed today. Allen Weh did what he had to do. And Pete Jr. will be the wild card,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez gained in stature at today\u2019s Republican Party preprimary nominating convention. Allen Weh did what he needed to do. And Pete Domenici Jr. is down but not necessarily out. That\u2019s how Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff analyzed the results following today\u2019s vote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,1],"tags":[108,107],"class_list":["post-14489","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-2010-election","tag-roundhouse"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14489","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14489"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14489\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14489"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14489"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14489"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}