{"id":123416,"date":"2016-02-04T10:28:00","date_gmt":"2016-02-04T17:28:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=123416"},"modified":"2016-02-04T10:28:00","modified_gmt":"2016-02-04T17:28:00","slug":"nice-was-better-than-nasty-in-iowa-analysis-of-ads-shows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2016\/02\/nice-was-better-than-nasty-in-iowa-analysis-of-ads-shows\/","title":{"rendered":"Nice was better than nasty in Iowa, analysis of ads shows"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_54908\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignnone\" style=\"max-width: 771px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/pictures-of-money\/17123251389\/in\/photolist-s6895e-chEwR9-bH1iX8-bt4mNt-42PQoC-a2YSa6-62QVKf-bta55K-dB7F8e-dK2oa7-aFDjPB-aYWk56-aFATbM-aFAaK6-aFAQEv-snzAJp-QxcaH-s4fksR-cMnty-bZvUDS-bta3kH-brd1K2-62LFqP-dTUAhR-5p8w8o-7jm7SP-8F5t1j-dSZe91-dUSc9a-a5SwX-dSK3tm-biaRHp-68vjKV-68zxeQ-9C9vCS-aFAPtx-9ZA9J6-cXNz15-9kJxyv-b6MUJK-68zxij-aFDkRt-aFDet2-bDwJ11-5DfGXv-bmm93i-55FLSR-aFDcrg-bf3Nge-nQZguc\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54908 size-large\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-771x495.jpg\" alt=\"Money\" width=\"771\" height=\"495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-771x495.jpg 771w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-336x216.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-768x494.jpg 768w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-1170x752.jpg 1170w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money-780x500.jpg 780w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/Money.jpg 1500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 771px) 100vw, 771px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Pictures of Money \/ Creative Commons<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Overall, the candidates who led the field in Iowa ran more positive ads than negative ones, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis of data provided by Kantar Media\/CMAG. (<a href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/4.0\/\" target=\"_blank\">photo cc info<\/a>)<\/p><\/div>\n<p>For six months, candidates and outside groups assailed Iowa TV viewers with a nonstop barrage of political ads.<\/p>\n<p>They aired thousands of spots on morning shows. Democrats <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/2015\/04\/12\/17107\/12-things-know-about-hillary-clinton\" target=\"_blank\">Hillary Clinton<\/a>\u00a0and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/2015\/04\/30\/17261\/12-things-know-about-bernie-sanders\" target=\"_blank\">Bernie Sanders<\/a> went big on soap operas. Team Rubio sought out football games. Everyone clogged up the commercial breaks on Wheel of Fortune.<\/p>\n<p>Millions of dollars and roughly 100,000 TV ads later, according to a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Public Integrity<\/a> analysis of data provided by advertising tracking firm\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.kantarmedia.com\/us\/our-solutions\/advertising-monitoring-and-evaluation\/political\" target=\"_blank\">CMAG\/Kantar Media<\/a>, no one is ready to say any of the ads made the decisive difference in the Iowa caucus on Monday.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This story comes from the Center for Public Integrity, a nonprofit, nonpartisan investigative media organization in Washington, D.C. It\u2019s\u00a0part of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/politics\/buying-president-2016?utm_campaign=syndication&amp;utm_source=yahoo-news&amp;utm_medium=taxonomy-link\" target=\"_blank\">Buying of the President 2016<\/a>. Tracking the candidates, political committees and nonprofits that are making this presidential election the most expensive in history.\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/politics\/buying-president-2016?utm_campaign=syndication&amp;utm_source=yahoo-news&amp;utm_medium=taxonomy-link\" target=\"_blank\">Click here<\/a> to read more stories in this investigation.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>But one thing appears to be clear \u2014 nice was better than nasty.<\/p>\n<p>Travis Ridout,\u00a0co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, which tracks political advertising, said Sanders and U.S. Sen. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/2015\/04\/13\/17058\/12-things-know-about-marco-rubio\" target=\"_blank\">Marco Rubio<\/a>\u00a0of Florida in particular probably benefited from ads introducing themselves to voters and building a sense of viability.<\/p>\n<p>Rubio finished a strong third on the Republican side. Sanders, a U.S. senator from Vermont who identifies as a socialist, nearly tied Clinton, the former Secretary of State and Democratic establishment favorite.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Right to Rise USA, the pro-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.publicintegrity.org\/2015\/06\/15\/17142\/12-things-know-about-jeb-bush\" target=\"_blank\">Jeb Bush<\/a> super PAC behemoth, ran the largest number of negative ads and so-called contrast ads, which compare candidates with each other and often have a negative cast.<\/p>\n<p>The super PAC drew fire for targeting Rubio with negative ads, which didn\u2019t work particularly well. Rubio buried Bush on caucus night.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThey spent an enormous amount of money trying to depress support for other candidates,\u201d said Elizabeth Wilner, vice president at Kantar Media\/CMAG. \u201cThat clearly failed.\u201d<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Early in the campaign season, Bush hired prominent Iowa hand David Kochel,\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.politico.com\/story\/2015\/01\/jeb-bush-david-kochel-2016-elections-114737\" target=\"_blank\">seen as a sign<\/a> that he would vigorously compete there. But his campaign opted not to air a single ad in Iowa, instead letting the super PAC pick up the slack.<\/p>\n<p>Right to Rise USA ultimately aired almost twice as many ads in Iowa markets (10,355) than Bush received votes on caucus night (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/2016-election-results\/iowa\/\" target=\"_blank\">5,238<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>The airtime assault is now poised to continue in New Hampshire, whose first-in-the-nation primary takes place next Tuesday. The number of political ads aimed at the Granite State jumped 76 percent, from 9,029 to 15,917, between December and January.<\/p>\n<p>As the field winnows down, advertising could have a more powerful impact.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAdvertising in the best circumstances makes a difference at the margin that is much more noticeable in a general election when you\u2019re talking about a two-way race over a long period of time,\u201d said Wilner.<\/p>\n<h3>Super PACs more negative<\/h3>\n<p>Overall, the candidates who led the field in Iowa ran more positive ads than negative ones, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis of data provided by Kantar Media\/CMAG, though the outside groups supporting them typically struck a less sunny tone.<\/p>\n<p>On the Republican side, nearly three-quarters of the ads run by the big winner of the night, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, were positive. Factoring in ads from the cluster of super PACs supporting him, however, drops the percentage of positive ads to not quite half of the total.<\/p>\n<p>Cruz had help from two super PACs \u2014 Keep the Promise I and Stand for Truth Inc. \u2014 that pumped more than 2,500 ads into Iowa markets during the last three weeks of January through Feb. 1, saturating the airwaves up until caucus-goers cast their ballots.<\/p>\n<p>One other pro-Cruz super PAC, Keep the Promise III, had earlier aired a few dozen ads.<\/p>\n<p>Advertising, of course, only tells part of the story.<\/p>\n<p>Cruz\u2019s victory has also been credited to an organized ground game and a strong performance on the stump, said Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole\u2019s 1996 presidential campaign and is now senior political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.<\/p>\n<p>Larry Levy, the lawyer for Keep the Promise I, a super PAC supporting Cruz, said the group intends to continue on its current course.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cYou have a finite amount [of money] and then you figure out what\u2019s the most effective way to use that money, whether you\u2019re running a PAC or a business,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>About 80 percent of the ads run by real estate mogul Donald Trump, who finished second, were positive. That\u2019s essentially the same portion as Rubio and the outside groups supporting him.<\/p>\n<p>Trump didn\u2019t air any ads until January, but then sponsored 6,280 spots in the lead-up to the caucuses on Feb. 1 \u2014 an average of about 1 TV ad every seven minutes.<\/p>\n<p>Rubio and the outside groups supporting him took the candidate\u2019s football roots \u2014 he was a star player in high school \u2014 into account in their ad strategy. They\u2019ve so far aired roughly 400 ads during football games in Iowa and New Hampshire markets, more than any other candidate.<\/p>\n<p>Rubio even produced a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ErrGuZlaUBo\" target=\"_blank\">football-specific ad<\/a> in which he \u201cfields\u201d questions while tossing a football. The ad has so far aired 34 times during games in Iowa and New Hampshire markets.<\/p>\n<p>On the Democratic side, Kantar Media\/CMAG classified all of Clinton and Sanders\u2019 ads as positive. That includes one Sanders ad <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.wsj.com\/washwire\/2016\/01\/28\/bernie-sanders-ad-steps-up-attack-on-hillary-clintons-wall-street-ties\/\" target=\"_blank\">widely viewed<\/a> as attacking Clinton\u2019s ties to Wall Street that doesn\u2019t actually mention her by name.<\/p>\n<h3>Good showing critical<\/h3>\n<p>Ads are expensive, and a good showing in the Iowa caucuses is critical to the ability of campaigns and outside groups to keep attracting funding so they can buy time.<\/p>\n<p>Annie Presley, the former deputy finance director for the Republican George W. Bush\u2019s 2000 campaign, said candidates who aren\u2019t viable \u201ccan\u2019t expect people to keep giving.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Presley, who isn\u2019t raising money for anyone this year, added: \u201cThose guys who were [at] 2, 3, 4, 5 percent \u2014 if their money doesn\u2019t dry up, I\u2019ll be very surprised.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Coming out of Jeb Bush\u2019s sixth-place finish in Iowa, his backers say New Hampshire will be critical.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe certainly always was expected to do better in New Hampshire,\u201d said lobbyist David Beightol, a Bush backer, who has given $2,700 to Bush\u2019s campaign.<\/p>\n<p>On a phone call with donors Tuesday morning, Bush campaign officials took no questions and asked only for deployment of volunteers, not for money, said a Bush bundler who did not want to be identified discussing communications with the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI can imagine they probably have had a conversation which says it\u2019s fools\u2019 folly to ask people to raise money right now,\u201d the bundler said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe\u2019s got to come out of New Hampshire looking viable,\u201d the bundler added.<\/p>\n<p>Otherwise, establishment donors will turn to Rubio, who now has momentum after his unexp ectedly strong third-place finish in Iowa.<\/p>\n<p>Cruz bundler Mica Mosbacher, meanwhile, said her phone has been blowing up since the caucus results came in. Prospective donors have been emailing and texting her, including some at 2 a.m. after the caucus win \u2014 a change from her typically having to chase them down.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI am hearing from potential donors that I thought had forgotten me,\u201d she told the Center for Public Integrity.<\/p>\n<p>A typical email for her today: \u201cTed Cruz had a good night. Any fundraisers coming up?\u201d<\/p>\n<p><em>Michael Beckel contributed to this report.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The candidates who led the field in Iowa ran more positive ads than negative ones, according to a Center for Public Integrity analysis of data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54908,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[708,705,226],"class_list":["post-123416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-2016-election","tag-money-in-politics","tag-presidential-race"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=123416"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/123416\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=123416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=123416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=123416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}