{"id":117406,"date":"2016-01-15T15:36:27","date_gmt":"2016-01-15T22:36:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/?p=117406"},"modified":"2016-01-15T15:36:29","modified_gmt":"2016-01-15T22:36:29","slug":"as-el-chapo-extradition-unfolds-border-region-could-see-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/2016\/01\/as-el-chapo-extradition-unfolds-border-region-could-see-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"As &#8216;El Chapo&#8217; extradition unfolds, border region could see impact"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With Mexico beginning the process of extraditing Joaqu\u00edn \u201cEl Chapo\u201d Guzm\u00e1n to the United States, the Texas-Mexico border is faced with a familiar question and a fresh one: How\u00a0will the\u00a0notorious drug kingpin&#8217;s\u00a0recapture impact the region&#8217;s drug trade?<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_117416\"  class=\"wp-caption module image alignleft\" style=\"max-width: 336px;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-117416\" src=\"http:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Guzman-Joaquin-El-Chapo-336x195.jpg\" alt=\"Joaqu\u00edn &quot;El Chapo&quot; Guzm\u00e1n's official mugshot\" width=\"336\" height=\"195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Guzman-Joaquin-El-Chapo-336x195.jpg 336w, https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/01\/Guzman-Joaquin-El-Chapo.jpg 693w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 336px) 100vw, 336px\" \/><\/a><p class=\"wp-media-credit\">Courtesy photo<\/p><p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Joaqu\u00edn &#8220;El Chapo&#8221; Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s official mugshot<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Also, what are the chances he will be sent to Texas to answer for his crimes there?<\/p>\n<p>Guzm\u00e1n was recaptured last Friday\u00a0morning by Mexican marines in Los Mochis, located in Guzm\u00e1n\u2019s home state of Sinaloa, after escaping from a\u00a0Mexican maximum-security prison in July. Both Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s fate, and the drug empire controlled by his Sinaloa cartel, hang in the balance, according to Shannon O\u2019Neil, a senior fellow for Latin America Studies and the director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Whenever we\u2019ve seen a leader taken out, the waves of disruptions that follow are often quite violent as others try to poach the territory or [because of] fighting within the Sinaloa cartel,&#8221; O&#8217;Neil said. &#8220;There is a likelihood that that could happen.&#8221;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"module align-left half type-aside\">\n<h3>About this article<\/h3>\n<p>This article originally appeared in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2016\/01\/14\/chapos-extradition-could-mean-challenges-opportuni\/\" target=\"_blank\">The Texas Tribune<\/a>,\u00a0a nonpartisan, nonprofit media organization that informs Texans \u2014 and engages with them \u2013 about public policy, politics, government and statewide issues.<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>From 2008 to 2011, Guzm\u00e1n\u2019s group was partly responsible for the killings of thousands of people in Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez, across the Rio Grande from El Paso, as it fought the Ju\u00e1rez Cartel for control of the drug corridors that extend into Texas and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>Despite his initial arrest in February 2014, a report released Wednesday by the Congressional Research Service indicates Guzm\u00e1n\u2019s empire could still control more than half of Mexico\u2019s drug trade.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Sinaloa [drug trafficking organization] now controls roughly 40% to 60% of\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2012\/06\/17\/magazine\/how-a-mexican-drug-cartel-makes-its-billions.html?_r=0\" target=\"_blank\">Mexico&#8217;s drug trade<\/a>, according to several estimates,\u201d the report states. \u201cIt is known for trafficking cocaine, but moves all types of illicit drugs, including heroin, methamphetamine, and marijuana, to cities throughout the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In its 2015 Texas Gang Threat Assessment, the Texas Department of Public Safety listed the Sinaloa cartel as having an active presence on both sides of the border. Last week\u2019s capture doesn\u2019t change the agency\u2019s vigilance, according to spokesman Tom Vinger.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile it is certainly a positive gain when the leader of a ruthless, transnational criminal organization is captured by law enforcement, we know that there are multiple levels of leadership running the Mexican cartels,\u201d Vinger said in an email. \u201cThis arrest does not mean law enforcement can rest on its laurels. DPS will continue to work with our federal, state and local partners to combat the drug and human smuggling efforts by ruthless Mexican cartels and their operatives, who commit heinous crimes on both sides of the Texas-Mexico border.\u201d<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>After Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s initial capture in 2014, little changed in Ciudad Ju\u00e1rez despite concerns the city\u00a0might\u00a0return to its violent ways if the hometown Ju\u00e1rez cartel perceived weakness in a rival or if criminal alliances otherwise shifted.\u00a0Yet\u00a0the city remained relatively calm,\u00a0although\u00a0some parts of the\u00a0rural\u00a0Ju\u00e1rez Valley, about 30 miles to the east, saw increased bloodshed.<\/p>\n<p>The dynamic could be markedly different this time because of Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s pending extradition to the United States. Two years ago, former Mexican Attorney General Jes\u00fas Murillo Karam\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2015\/jan\/28\/mexico-rules-out-el-chapo-extradition\" target=\"_blank\">said<\/a>\u00a0Guzm\u00e1n would be extradited in \u201c300 or 400 years.\u201d This time around, Mexican officials are being more cooperative.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe justification for them not extraditing them last time was that they could safely keep him behind bars, and that proved to be not true,\u201d O&#8217;Neil said. \u201cSo that justification is gone.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>O\u2019Neil said that because Mexico is now\u00a0willing to send Guzm\u00e1n to the United States \u2014 even after what will surely be a lengthy process as his attorneys are allowed to file several appeals \u2014 the impact on the border could be different, and Guzm\u00e1n could continue to play a pivotal role.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cI think there\u2019s a lot of scenarios where it could be business as usual. By some accounts, it could take months \u2014 maybe years \u2014 to be extradited,\u201d she said.\u201d It\u2019s possible he could continue to run his empire from the inside.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Though the extradition process promises to be long and complicated, Texas remains on the list of places Guzm\u00e1n could end up to face an American court. He has been indicted by multiple offices of U.S. Attorneys, which are organized under the U.S. Justice Department, including the Western District of Texas.<\/p>\n<p>A partially redacted indictment filed in 2012 by the district\u2019s El Paso division charged Guzm\u00e1n with more than a dozen criminal counts that include murder, kidnapping and conspiracy charges.<\/p>\n<p>Guzm\u00e1n is also wanted in Chicago, San Diego, New York and Miami. The Associated Press\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/look-extradition-process-el-chapo-guzman-090637307--politics.html\" target=\"_blank\">reported<\/a>\u00a0this week that there is no indication where the kingpin will be sent to face charges, though all of the jurisdictions are expected to make a play to have Guzm\u00e1n prosecuted by their federal attorneys.<\/p>\n<p>Despite all the uncertainty around Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s future, some see Mexico&#8217;s new willingness to work with American officials on his extradition as a signal of a promising new beginning for the two countries as they move forward on other issues, such as security and immigration.<\/p>\n<p>O\u2018Neil said a lot of credit goes to Mexican Attorney General Arely G\u00f3mez Gonz\u00e1lez, who indicated when she took office last February that she was willing to have a discussion with American officials on issues her predecessor, Murillo Karam, deemed specific to Mexico.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c[The relationship] has been evolving to be more reciprocal than it had been since (Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s\u00a0capture in 2014),\u201d O&#8217;Neil said. \u201cIf Mexico cooperates on this rather than just backing off, I think Mexico can ask for other types of assistance or involvement that they want, rather than it being pressured upon them. They can do it on their terms. It gives them a bargaining chip.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While Mexican and U.S. officials discuss drug kingpin Joaqu\u00edn \u201cEl Chapo\u201d Guzm\u00e1n&#8217;s extradition, some wonder if a surge in cartel violence along the Texas-Mexico border could follow.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":117416,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[142,236,195,2260],"class_list":["post-117406","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-crime","tag-mexico","tag-mexicos-drug-war","tag-texas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117406","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=117406"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117406\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/117416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=117406"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=117406"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nmpolitics.net\/index\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=117406"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}