Congressional redistricting proposal is DOA

There’s been some talk recently about shifting boundaries and making New Mexico’s Congressional District 1 friendlier to Democrats.

But the proposal to redistrict and take some Democrats from Congressional District 2 in exchange for some Republicans is dead on arrival, a diverse group of sources told me.

Joe Monahan reported Wednesday that Sen. Gerald Ortiz y Pino of Albuquerque will introduce a bill in the 2007 session that will move rural, Republican Torrance County out of the 1st District, which is currently represented by Republican Heather Wilson, and into the 2nd District, which is represented by Republican Steve Pearce. The plan would also move all of Democratic Valencia County from Pearce’s district to Wilson’s. Currently, the county is split between the two districts.

There’s been growing talk of such a change since Wilson narrowly defeated Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid on Nov. 7. Democrats have tried several times, without success, to win the district, which has 39,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

Some Albuquerque-area Democrats are willing to concede the 2nd District to Republicans in exchange for a better shot at taking out Wilson.

It won’t happen.

Southern New Mexico Democrats killed a redistricting proposal pushed by former Sen. Manny Aragon and others in 2001 for similar reasons. The southerners see the 2nd District as one they can win – and a few, including state reps. Joseph Cervantes and Jeff Steinborn of Las Cruces, might try to win it themselves.

Cervantes has said he is considering running against Pearce in 2008.

The last thing Democrats like Cervantes and Steinborn will want is for the district, which has more registered Democrats than Republicans, to become more Republican.

Republicans wouldn’t go for the plan, either, because they don’t want to lose Wilson’s seat. Why would the GOP want to redraw the lines when all three New Mexico congressional districts have more registered Democrats than Republicans, but two of the three are represented by Republicans?

Monahan analyzed the situation and found that, under the Ortiz y Pino proposal, Wilson would have most likely lost to Madrid this time around. But Wilson still would have won the races she won in 2004 and 2002.

Madrid was one of only two Democrats to come close to winning the district since it was created 40 years ago. The seat has never been held by a Democrat.

That has made it a constant source of frustration for Albuquerque-area Democrats. But as long as they want to take from southern Democrats and the GOP, they won’t have the support they need to make the change.