U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., claimed victory late Thursday in the hotly contested 1st Congressional District race, but Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid said she isn’t ready to give up.
With all precincts reporting, Wilson currently holds a lead of 1,607 votes out of more than 207,000 cast. There are 4,398 ballots left to be dealt with, but large number are provisional ballots, and many of those won’t likely be counted.
Wilson has 104,575 votes, or 50.4 percent, to Madrid’s 102,968 votes, or 49.6 percent.
If Wilson is right, she has overcome the biggest challenge of her political career.
If that happens in the year of the Democratic tidal wave, it would speak volumes about Wilson and the respect she has earned. Nationally, the partisan Republicans who don’t listen to or work for their constituents were knocked out of office, many by candidates who were weaker than Madrid, who was a strong candidate.
At the same time, Wilson will likely have a boring two years, as Democratic leaders will give her little to do, knowing she’ll be a prime target in two years. She may also be pressured by her party to take a strong stand on Iraq. If she jumps on board with the party message, she might damage the independence that won her votes this time around.
If she doesn’t, she might have less support from her party in a re-election bid in two years.
All that said: In Doña Ana County, provisional ballots have historically favored Democratic candidates. I don’t know whether the same is true in Bernalillo County. But Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling Inc., told the Albuquerque Journal that Madrid would have to take the provisional ballots by a 3-to-1 ratio, assuming the number of provisional ballots rejected in past elections holds true this time.
If you assume all provisionals will be counted, she’d have to take them by a 2-to-1 margin, he told the newspaper.
Democrats allege that the Republican Party intentionally misdirected Democrat voters to incorrect polling places – an allegation Republicans deny – and say that means provisionals will heavily favor Madrid. That may be the case.
But don’t forget the two Republican precincts that ran out of ballots and were shut down for about 30 minutes on Election Day. There are potentially valid claims on both sides.
This race might end only after a recount.
U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., claimed victory late Thursday in the hotly contested 1st Congressional District race, but Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid said she isn’t ready to give up. 
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