Dems’ new poll shows Marquardt up one point, other House Dem hopefuls with strong leads

Rep. Terry Marquardt should be worried about losing his House seat, if the Democratic Party’s poll numbers are to be believed.

The Republican from Alamogordo is up only one point on Democratic challenger Nate Cote in the newest poll. The last Democratic Party poll had Marquardt up four percentage points.

The new poll has Marquardt with 43 percent of the vote to Cote’s 42 percent.

Many Republicans I spoke with weren’t surprised. Redistricting several years ago put 8 of 10 precincts in House District 53 in Doña Ana County, and Republicans suspected the district would eventually be taken by someone from Las Cruces.

Cote hasn’t won yet, but his chances are growing.

There’s another reason Cote may be doing so well. My wife and I live in District 53. We’re both registered independents. We’re getting Cote’s mailers – four so far – but none from Marquardt, though he has sent at least five to Democrats in the district.

Does he not realize that 20 percent of voters in Doña Ana County are registered independents? Is he really not going to ask for independents’ votes?

On to other House races:

In the District 36 race, the Democrats’ poll has Rep. Andy Nuñez, D-Hatch, with a sizable lead, 51-34 percent, over Republican challenger Isaac Chavez. This is quite a surprise – Republicans are as optimistic about knocking Nuñez out of the House as Democrats are about beating Marquardt. Chavez has raised and spent more money in recent weeks and is knocking on more doors than Nuñez.

Many Democrats I spoke with doubt these results.

In the District 37 race, Democrat Jeff Steinborn is ahead of Republican Scott Witt 45-37 percent in the Democrats’ poll. Some Democrats I spoke with doubted these results, too, and expect a closer race. But the Republicans I spoke with weren’t surprised.

The Democrats didn’t poll the District 35 race between Democratic incumbent Antonio Lujan and Republican challenger Lawrence Joy. They don’t consider Joy a threat.

Though I was able to get my hands on these poll numbers from a source I trust, I have not seen the actual documents and did not get information on who conducted the polls, how many people were surveyed, or an exact margin of error. Take that for what it’s worth.

Internal party polls are interesting, but I wouldn’t bet the bank on them.

Update, 10:15 a.m.

I’ve confirmed these numbers with additional sources, and also learned that the District 53 poll surveyed 300 people.

Update, 11/01 at noon

Lawrence Joy, Republican candidate for House District 35 who also runs a marketing company, is doing Marquardt’s mailers. He said Marquardt’s mailing list includes 7,500 people – 1,100 of them independents – and said the names of me and my wife aren’t on the list because we changed our address with the clerk’s office after Aug. 1. Joy said the Aug. 1 voter list is the last complete list that has been provided to the Republican Party by the clerk’s office.