Polls, polls, polls: Journal surveys show Pearce, Richardson ahead, Wilson/Madrid race tight

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The Albuquerque Journal published this weekend the results of several political polls, including one that had U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., with a huge lead over Democratic challenger Al Kissling.

In that poll, which, like the others, was conducted by Research and Polling Inc., Pearce had the support of 54 percent of voters surveyed in the 2nd Congressional District. Kissling had 29 percent of the vote, according to the Journal article, which you can read by clicking here.

Most I spoke with weren’t surprised. Pearce’s fundraising dwarfs that of Kissling, and Pearce is the incumbent. It’s that simple.

However, the poll has a rather large margin of error of plus or minus 8.4 percentage points, according to the Journal. The article did not state when the poll was conducted or how many people were surveyed.

Among Republicans, 85 percent said they would vote for Pearce and 3 percent said they would vote for Kissling. Fifty percent of Democrats said they would vote for Kissling, and 32 percent said they would vote for Pearce.

“Pearce has nearly universal support among members of his party,” Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling, told the Journal. “Kissling is ahead among Democrats, but Pearce has a third of the Democratic support, which is what is enabling him to have a strong lead.”

Pearce already knew this, and has focused on securing moderate Democratic votes. Last week, he began airing radio spots in Las Cruces touting his self-proclaimed “independent leadership.”

“That’s why so many Republicans, independents and Democrats are supporting Steve Pearce,” the ad states just before a woman who claims to be a Democrat talks about her support for Pearce.

Not surprisingly, the Journal poll showed that Pearce, who is from Hobbs, had support of 78 percent of those surveyed from the eastern half of the district, while Kissling had just 11 percent of the vote there.

In the western half, which includes Kissling’s hometown of Las Cruces, he had the support of 37 percent of those surveyed, compared to 43-percent support for Pearce.

Sanderoff said Pearce will have more funding in the last two months of the campaign, and “Kissling will have a hard time getting his message out,” according to the Journal.

Here are the other topics surveyed by Research and Polling for the Journal:

Richardson is on his way to 60-percent goal

Gov. Bill Richardson has a strong lead over Republican challenger John Dendahl, according to the Journal. Fifty-seven percent of registered voters backed the governor, while 28 percent backed Dendahl. With 11 percent undecided, the governor’s goal of securing 60 percent of the vote is within reach.

The poll, which was conducted last week and sampled 674 registered voters, has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

A separate poll, which has a margin of error of 5 percentage points, found that 61 percent of New Mexico voters approve of the job Richardson is doing, according to the Journal.

In the election poll, Richardson led Dendahl in every region of the state, among men and women, among Anglo and Hispanic voters, in all age groups and at every income level, according to the Journal.

Dendahl led among voters who described themselves as conservative with 44 percent of the vote, but even among that group Richardson had 40 percent of the vote. He had 78 percent of support among Democrats and 30 percent of support among Republicans. Dendahl had 53 percent of support among Republicans, according to the Journal.

Madrid is right on Wilson’s heels

Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid is right on the heels of Republican Heather Wilson, the Central New Mexico U.S. representative, according to the Journal.

Wilson had 45 percent of the vote to Madrid’s 42 percent in the survey of 410 registered voters conducted last week. The poll has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points.

Ten percent of those polled are undecided, and three percent said they don’t intend to vote for either candidate, according to the Journal.

This race has the attention and funding of the national parties, as Democrats believe they can take the seat and Republicans are desperate to hold on to it at a time when many analysts believe Democrats might take control of the House.

“It is, absolutely, anybody’s race,” University of New Mexico political science professor emeritus F. Chris Garcia told the Journal. “It has major national implications. It was billed early on as one of the races to watch, and it is living up to its billing.”

Land commissioner race is close

Forty-one percent said they would vote for Democratic challenger Jim Baca in the race of state land commissioner, according to the Journal. Thirty-six percent said they would vote for the Republican incumbent, Pat Lyons. Since Lyons’s fundraising dwarfs that of Baca, this is anyone’s race. The poll has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Treasurer’s seat is still up for grabs

In the state treasurer’s race, Democrat James Lewis leads Republican Demesia Padilla, but this one is a long way from over. According to the Journal, 40 percent of those surveyed last week said they will vote for Lewis. Twenty-six percent said they will vote for Padilla, but 34 percent remain undecided, and both candidates suffer from a lack of name recognition.

King has a sizable lead in AG race

The Journal poll confirmed polls done by the Gary King campaign: The Democrat is well ahead of Republican Jim Bibb in the race for attorney general. King had 47 percent in the poll, while 27 percent of voters said they would vote for Bibb. However, 26 percent said they were undecided. The margin of error in this poll is 3.7 percentage points.

Bingaman is way ahead

U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., had support of 62 percent of voters polled, according to the Journal. His challenger, Allen McCulloch of Farmington, had 23 percent, and 16 percent were undecided. The poll, which was conducted last week, has a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Udall is even further ahead

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., had the support of 71 percent of those surveyed in his Northern New Mexico district, according to the Journal. His challenger, Republican Ron Dolin, had 18 percent in the poll, which has a margin of error of 8.4 percentage points.

More than half disapprove of Bush’s performance

Fifty-one percent of New Mexicans disapprove of the job President Bush is doing, according to the Journal. Thirty-eight percent approve of his job performance, and 11 percent have mixed feelings. The numbers are in line with national sentiment.

Fewer approve of Congress’ performance

Only 35 percent of New Mexico voters approve of the job Congress is doing, while 42 percent disapprove. Fifteen percent have mixed feelings and 8 percent either don’t know or would not say, according to the Journal.

State Legislature gets higher marks

By contrast, 44 percent of New Mexico voters approve of the job the state Legislature is doing, according to the Journal. Twenty-five percent of voters disapprove of the job of the Legislature. Twenty-two percent had mixed feelings, and 9 percent don’t know or would not say.

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