A ‘true blue’ New Mexico? It’s a real possibility

When Sen. Pete Domenici announced his retirement a year ago and triggered a domino effect that has made New Mexico one of the most hotly contested states in the 2008 election, who would have thought that Democrats might win the state’s five electoral votes in the presidential race, Domenici’s Senate seat and all three open seats in the U.S. House?

Not me. I said as much on my blog and during radio and newspaper interviews. Republicans appeared poised to compete vigorously in all federal races in New Mexico, and I and many others assumed they’d be able to win at least some of the races. After all, New Mexico’s congressional delegation currently has a 3-2 Republican majority. New Mexicans may like sending Democrats to Santa Fe, but they also like sending Republicans to Washington.

But it’s become clear that New Mexico may not send a single Republican to Washington next year. New Mexico could be what Democrats like to call “true blue” in January.

A number of recent polls confirm that Barack Obama has pulled ahead in New Mexico in the presidential race by a few points. Democrat Tom Udall is retaining his double-digit lead over Republican Steve Pearce in the Senate race. In the 1st Congressional District race, polls show a tight contest but indicate that Democrat Martin Heinrich may have a slight lead over Republican Darren White. In the heavily Democratic 3rd District, the race appears to be all but over.

Perhaps most surprising is that, in the conservative 2nd District of southern New Mexico, polls show that Democrat Harry Teague has a slight lead over Republican Ed Tinsley.

What’s going on? New Mexico is a purple state. Why don’t the polls reflect that? There are a number of factors in each race that have contributed to Republicans’ woes:

• Obama has a level of grassroots organization in New Mexico that is unprecedented.

• On a statewide level, New Mexicans generally like electing Democrats or moderate Republicans. Pearce is neither.

• White may not have been as active this summer as he needed to be, and Heinrich is riding the progressive wave that led to three challengers toppling Democratic incumbents this summer in state legislative primary races in the Albuquerque area.

• Teague is a conservative Democrat and an oil man, and he’s from the “Little Texas” corner of New Mexico that usually carries Republicans to victory in the 2nd District. Tinsley has made some mistakes that have cost him.

It’s all about the economy

But none of that should add up to a purple state turning blue. There’s an overarching reason New Mexico could become true blue. The Land of Enchantment is not only ground zero in the 2008 election — it’s also a microcosm of the mood of the nation.

Health care and Iraq are among the issues that have helped the Democrats compete so heavily even in places where they might not normally — like New Mexico’s 2nd District — but those issues are all currently being drowned out by the economic crisis, which is leading the American public to shift even further to the left.

New Mexico isn’t impacted as severely by the financial crisis as many other states. Smart laws mean the number of foreclosures is much lower in New Mexico than elsewhere. The state’s dependence on federal jobs — it’s home to two national labs, White Sands Missile Range and three Air Force bases — means the state’s economic highs and lows aren’t as high or low as the nation’s. And state government is in better shape than in many other states. New Mexico has a balanced budget and money in reserves.

But people are still suffering. High gas and food prices are hitting their pocketbooks. Their retirement plans and investments are losing value. So are their homes. Unemployment is rising, though it’s lower than the national average. Many with good credit can’t take out a loan to buy a new car or help fund a small business. The economy here is bad, just as it is everywhere.

That’s the reason Obama has climbed past John McCain not only in surveys of New Mexico voters but also in national polls in the last couple of weeks. The majority of voters have judged, at least for the time being, that Obama and the Democrats are better capable of handing the nation’s economic crisis.

That’s not to say the Republicans can’t win some of these races. But it doesn’t appear that the economy is going to be in any better shape on Election Day than it is today. McCain is going to have to focus on the economy rather than trying to turn voters against Obama with unrelated, negative attacks. And the GOP candidates in New Mexico are going to have to find a way to convince voters that they, not their Democratic counterparts, are more capable of turning the economy around.