N.M. is part of nation’s ‘next great swing region’

We all know that New Mexico has become a battleground state in national politics, but one researcher says it is part of a group of states that’s becoming “the next great swing region in American politics.”

Eight states – Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming – are becoming the next great battlefront, writes Ryan Sager of RealClearPolitics.com in a new article. He notes that while a shift of about 60,000 votes in Ohio would have given the 2004 election to John Kerry, a shift of 70,000 votes in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico would have done the same. George Bush won those states by 5 percentage points, 3 points and 1 point, respectively.

What’s unique here, Sager writes, is that the West is as fiscally conservative as the South, but is much more socially libertarian. The West is less religious, more Hispanic, and has a huge influx of ex-Californians. As the Republican Party focuses on hot-button moral and patriotic issues such as gay marriage and flag burning, it risks losing such voters, who care more about freedom, independence and privacy, Sager writes.

Moderate Democrats like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson can capitalize (and already are) by being more fiscally conservative while retaining traditionally liberal social values.

Interesting thoughts. Thanks to the Albuquerque Journal’s Bruce Daniels for leading me to the article.