Fighting between Dems increases McCain’s chances

Several months ago I didn’t see much reason to believe a Republican would be elected president this year. A Democratic wave was sweeping the country. Democrats had an incredibly deep pool of talented presidential candidates. Excitement about the candidacies of a woman, black man and Hispanic man led to media coverage of the Democratic primary that topped that given to American Idol.

The Democratic wave is generally continuing; however, in recent weeks, I’ve changed my opinion about the chances of the Republican nominee as the result of an incredibly pragmatic GOP electorate.

John McCain started the race as the favorite candidate of only about 25 percent of Republicans, according to Real Clear Politics. He was not liberal enough for Giuliani supporters, not religious enough for Huckabee and Romney supporters, not conservative enough for Thompson supporters and too pro-war for Paul supporters. He wasn’t the most articulate, the sharpest or the best on the economy. He somehow ended up becoming the GOP nominee anyway.

How? He is a patriot. He is a former prisoner of war whose devotion to his nation is apparent. And, though in practicality most of his policy stances have shifted in the last eight years from fairly moderate to right-wing, most Americans don’t realize that, so he can get away with calling himself a moderate.

I think the key is electability. Remember McCain’s defining win in New Hampshire on the backs of independents? That was a critical moment in this campaign that catapulted McCain to the nomination.

It became quickly apparent that, if Republicans didn’t pick a candidate who would appeal to moderates and even some Democrats, they would be handing the keys to the White House to Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in this year of the Democratic wave.

For many, it was a choice to pick the lesser of two evils, so they did it.

Now McCain gets to start out weeks or months ahead of the eventual Democratic nominee in the general election. He gets to craft a positive image of himself, raise money and campaign at a saner pace while Obama and Clinton duke it out in what has become an incredibly bitter, negative dogfight that has no end in sight and is damaging both candidates.

McCain is beginning his march to November this week with a tour of the nation that includes stops in several states to give speeches about his life and background. Though this week’s tour doesn’t include a visit to New Mexico, McCain began airing television ads on Friday, choosing to start them first in the Land of Enchantment. And his campaign manager is visiting the state on Friday to speak to the Republican National Committee’s state party chairmen’s meeting.

New Mexico is one of the states McCain should target. It’s a state whose Democrats narrowly picked Clinton over Obama. With every passing day, Clinton’s hopes of winning the Democratic nomination fade. She won in the state’s rural areas and among Hispanics. Those are two groups of Democrats who I’m guessing will give McCain serious consideration in November when the other choice is Obama.

Crossovers benefit McCain

Nationwide, McCain has similar strength against either Democrat: A significant percentage of Democrats who support Clinton, depending on which poll is considered, say they will vote for McCain over Obama. The same is true of Democrats who support Obama – many say they’ll pick McCain over Clinton. Read about that by clicking here and here.

While Obama would get some crossover Republican votes, McCain gets more Democratic support in polls that Obama gets Republican support.

Support for Obama and Clinton is dropping daily with the negative back-and-forth between the two candidates. I know two previous Obama supporters who have jumped ship in recent weeks because of what’s going on.

Many who still support Obama and Clinton are losing enthusiasm. I spoke to one prominent New Mexico Democrat this week who supports Clinton but said she is incredibly disappointed that the former first lady recently “lied” about dodging sniper fire while visiting Bosnia in the 1990s.

Meanwhile, Republicans have weeks or months to sell McCain to conservative independents and Democrats and try to build excitement behind a storied war hero. It’s a profound reality: A man who started this process as the favorite candidate of few Republicans is suddenly in a prime position to win the presidency.

A version of this article was published today on the Diary of a Mad Voter blog published by the Denver Post’s Politics West and the independent Web site NewWest.net.