A new poll of likely Democratic voters in the Third Congressional District has Don Wiviott gaining ground on Ben R. Luján.
The poll, conducted for Wiviott’s campaign by Lake Research Partners, has Luján up seven points, 23 percent to 16 percent. It places Jon Adams, Harry Montoya and Benny Shendo Jr. each at 4 percent, and Rudy Martin at 2 percent. Some 48 percent said they are undecided.
That’s much different than the results of a poll conducted at the end of January by the Luján campaign. That poll had Luján with 35 percent of the vote to Montoya’s 9 percent, Wiviott’s 6 percent, 4 percent each for Adams and Shendo, 2 percent for Martin and 3 percent for Derrith Watchman-Moore, who ended up staying out of the race.
In between the two polls, Wiviott became the first congressional candidate in the state to run television commercials.
“This race is wide open,”
Wiviott said he is “humbled by the outpouring of support our campaign continues to generate.”
“People are desperate for change and leaders who can deliver it,” he said. “For too long, Congress has stood idly as Bush Republicans replace our government with divisive politics and right-wing ideology.
You can read the memo on the Wiviott poll by clicking here. The Luján campaign has not provided me with a copy of the memo on its January poll.
But Luján Campaign Manager Carlos Trujillo confirmed the numbers from the January poll today in an interview. He pointed out that the numbers released in the Wiviott polling memo “don’t add up to 100 percent” and said they “don’t seem realistic.”
“We feel really good about where we are,”
Wiviott Campaign spokeswoman Caroline Buerkle said the numbers provided in the Wiviott polling memo add up to 101 percent because of rounding, which is common in polls. She said Luján’s exact percentage was 22.5, Wiviott’s was 16.1, Montoya and Shendo came in at 4.3 percent, Adams was at 3.5 percent, Martin was at 1.6 percent and 47.6 percent were undecided.
Buerkle also said the poll included no pushing. The wording of the question was “And if the Democratic primary election for U.S. Congress were held today and the candidates were (their names were randomized here), for whom would you vote, or are you undecided?” She said that question was asked before, not after, a series of questions about issues and other topics.
Wiviott’s poll, which surveyed 500 likely Democratic primary voters, was conducted from Monday to Thursday. The margin of error is 4.4 percent. Luján’s poll was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from Jan. 27 to 30. It surveyed 504 likely Democratic voters and had a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Analysis
It’s no surprise that Wiviott has gained support after flooding television with ads. His name recognition has gone up significantly, and he’s beginning to get his message to voters. Luján will get on television at some point as well, and that will cause his numbers to climb.
But both polls had a very high number of undecided voters. I’ve thought all along that either candidate could win this primary, and the newest poll simply confirms that.
Both polling companies are reputable, though in
Wiviott will continue to outspend Luján in this race. Look for him to close the gap some more as undecided voters pick a candidate. But expect him and Luján to stay fairly close to each other in the polls. The support taken by the other four Democratic candidates may end up deciding this race.