What about 2008?

By Dr. James “Jim” Kadlecek

“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large, scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.” – Albert Einstein

Notwithstanding the truth of Einstein’s quote, I offer herein a few predictions for 2008. Let me acknowledge to start that my predictions are no more likely to be accurate than those of the generally well-informed readers of this blog, so feel free to add your own comments at the end of this posting.

Let’s dispense quickly with national predictions, since we are besieged daily by many media political commentators. For my part, I predict that:

• a Democrat will be elected president and the Democrats will again control Congress, despite their dismal performance since the 2006 elections.

• our boy Bill Richardson will do better in Iowa and New Hampshire than the polls currently indicate, and he will stick it out through Feb. 5 super Tuesday, after which he will call it quits. I hope I’m wrong on this one, because Bill is clearly the best-suited candidate.

• by mid-year, some troops will be brought back home from Iraq as we begin to see an end to this disastrous foreign-policy decision. With our usual win-lose mentality, we will debate the matter for years to come. Ultimately, it will be concluded that the war actually exacerbated the terrorist threat.

State predictions

OK, that’s enough of the national stuff. Now to state and local predictions, which are more enjoyable to speculate about since they are closer to home.

Since Richardson will likely get a major appointment from the new Democratic president (no, I’m not going to predict who that will be), Diane Denish will take over and do a credible job. House Speaker Ben Lujan, after more disclosures of his conflicts of interest, will lose his powerful leadership position. New Mexico Democrats will again maintain control of both houses of the state Legislature. Locally, all the incumbents will be re-elected to the Legislature.

Our open District 2 congressional seat has one less candidate now that Joseph Cervantes has withdrawn. Both the primary and the general election will be close races, but I think our energetic and intelligent young friend Bill McCamley will win. Tom Udall will be elected to replace Pete Domenici and I also predict that Democrats will win the other two open Congressional seats, likely giving the state an entirely Democratic delegation.

Local government

The politics of Las Cruces City Council have gotten considerably more interesting because of the public debate over the quality of growth and development. I think Sharon Thomas will win the open seat on the council this month. If I’m right on that, it will result in one of the best council groups that this city has ever seen. I’m a believer in the dynamic of the group, and I think that the combination of personalities will result in thoughtful, thorough and fair decision making. They won’t be either anti-growth or pro-growth but will accept the inevitability of growth and put in place some sensible growth-management policies.

At the county level, two commission seats will be vacated (by Kent Evans and McCamley), and it’s too early to say who might replace them. Dolores Saldaña-Caviness’ seat in the south is also up, and I think she will lose. So the commission will have two, probably three new faces. Holdover commissioners will be Karen Perez and Oscar Vásquez Butler, who have demonstrated a degree of independence. Neither appears to be a rubber stamp for the county manager and his staff, which is refreshing and needed.

I think the county is at a critical juncture, and I believe the major need for improvement in local governance is at this level of government. A statistic that is often misunderstood is that more people live outside Las Cruces in the county than live in Las Cruces. According to the 2006 Census estimates, the county’s population is 193,888, of which 86,268 live in Cruces and 15,883 live in the two municipalities of Hatch and Sunland Park. The county is responsible for comprehensive public services to all other residents, some 91,737 persons. Because the population growth in the county (particularly south county) is scattered in the rural areas and the numerous colonia settlements, delivering public services in a timely and equitable manner is an increasingly difficult challenge. The reality is that southern Doña Ana County is rapidly urbanizing, and the residents want improved public services.

Is the county prepared for that? I don’t see much evidence that county government overall has progressed to the level of sophistication that the situation requires. One only needs to drop in on community meetings in the south county to hear complaint after complaint about county services. I suspect that when the planners go about having various community meetings in 2008 for the 2040 comprehensive plan, they will get an earful of such complaints. I don’t know if the county information office has conducted a citizen satisfaction survey, but it ought to.

So, what’s my prediction? I think county issues will get lots of attention in 2008 and there will be significant focus on growth and services, on the budget, and on the inadequate leadership being provided by the current county manager. I’ll be writing more about this situation in future columns for this site.

Those are my predictive comments for the New Year. What are yours?

Kadlecek has lived in Doña Ana County since 1996, served in the Colorado Legislature and holds a doctorate in public administration. He’s the author of the book “Capitol Rape.” His column runs on the second and fourth Tuesdays of each month and other times that he gets fired up about something.