For those who are interested in politics, there won’t be a more interesting place to be in 2008 than New Mexico.
For starters, it’s a presidential election year, and New Mexico is a swing state. And for the first time, a New Mexican – Gov. Bill Richardson – is a serious presidential contender. To top it off, Sen. Pete Domenici’s retirement has just about every politician in the state looking for a way to move up.
Three of New Mexico’s five seats in Washington – all solidly in Republican hands before Domenici changed everything – are up for grabs. And with U.S. Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce giving up their House seats to run for Senate, at least one GOP giant will be without a job in June.
Though Rep. Tom Udall says he won’t give up his House seat to run for Senate, powerful Democrats in Washington and citizens in New Mexico are trying to change his mind. Don’t count him out yet.
Millions of dollars will pour in to New Mexico from around the nation. Famous and powerful people will frequent the state to promote their favorite candidates.
Domenici’s retirement will have consequences far beyond the federal races. Five of New Mexico’s seven statewide elected officials are thinking about running (or, in the case of Richardson, actually running) for federal seats. A victory by any of them would mean an open statewide seat.
And the potential for change filters down to local legislative, county and municipal seats. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez is running for Senate. A number of state legislators are looking at the congressional races. Other county and city officials are considering running for what may be open seats.
It’s a wild time. Here are a few mind-boggling scenarios to ponder:
• Udall jumps into the Senate race. All three of New Mexico’s U.S. House members end 2008 without jobs, because, after he loses the presidential race, Richardson enters the Senate race and stomps them all. Four of New Mexico’s five members of Congress would be brand new in January 2009.
• Udall decides to run for Senate, but loses to Pearce or Wilson. Republicans hold on to the First and Second congressional district seats and win Udall’s seat. (Alright, Republicans taking that Democratic stronghold in the Year of the Democratic Wave is less likely than Richardson being elected president, but it’s still interesting to think that Republicans could increase the number of seats they hold in Washington as a result of Domenici’s retirement.)
• Richardson wins the presidential race, is elected vice president or becomes secretary of state. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish runs for Senate and wins. Both resign their state jobs to go to Washington. Who becomes governor?
The most likely scenario is that, after Denish is sworn in as senator in early January 2009, Richardson would appoint a new lieutenant governor before he takes his Washington job on Jan. 20. Then the new lieutenant governor would become governor. The situation is further complicated because there is no process in state law for replacing the lieutenant governor if he or she becomes governor.
The point? By January 2009, New Mexico’s political landscape will look entirely different.
A version of this article was published today in the Albuquerque Tribune. I write a column for the newspaper that runs on the second and fourth Wednesdays of each month.