Domenici’s retirement creates quandary for state GOP

The retirement of U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici puts the New Mexico GOP in a quandary.

Not only do Republicans have to defend two seats in Washington next year that they currently hold, without incumbents – three if U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce decides to run against Rep. Heather Wilson in a Senate primary – but they also need to save resources for a serious attempt to capture the governor’s office in 2010.

Even before Domenici announced last week that he would retire at the end of 2008, the state’s Republicans had their minds on that race, knowing they won’t likely make enough gains in the state Legislature in 2008 and 2010 to have serious influence in redistricting in the next decade. Their best chance at being influential in that process is winning the gubernatorial race.

It’s critical for the GOP. Democratic domination of state government for more than seven decades will continue, and probably increase, if Republicans don’t have significant influence in redistricting.

Before Domenici’s retirement, Republicans were tasked with keeping three of New Mexico’s five seats in Washington by re-electing incumbents – a mission that was accomplishable, if not likely, and allowed time and resources for a reasonable focus on the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Republicans now face the daunting task of defending at least two of the Washington seats from a Democratic wave sans incumbents. They’ll have to do it while the mood continues to swing to the left in New Mexico and across the nation because of national GOP scandals and the unpopular Iraq war.

Many congressional Republicans who were up for re-election in 2006 were taken out. Unless something changes soon, more of the same is likely next year, as evidenced by the fact that a poll released just before Domenici announced his coming retirement had his popularity at 41 percent.

The New Mexico GOP will have to do some serious soul-searching if it’s to buck that trend and emerge victorious in the next few years. It tried, unsuccessfully, to make gains in 2006 by attacking Democrats for the repeated scandals in state government. That wasn’t enough.

On the national level, Democrats made gains not only because they focused on Republican scandals, but also because they talked about the public’s primary concerns – changing course in Iraq and health-care reform. The wave continues in part because Democrats have made strides in diversity by choosing a woman to lead the U.S. House and putting together an ethnically diverse slate of serious presidential candidates.

Republicans, meanwhile, have a bunch of white men and Alan Keyes running for president. With little exception, those candidates are out of touch with average American on Iraq and health care.

New Mexico’s Republican Party is going to have to make a serious effort to diversify if it’s to successfully defend the Senate and congressional seats and have a shot at winning a 2010 gubernatorial race that is currently dominated by Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, a progressive who excites liberals but who, with her Hobbs roots, will secure many conservative Democratic votes that Republicans need to win statewide races.

The mountain New Mexico’s Republicans have to climb is steep. To reach the top, they’ll have to redefine their party.

A version of this article was published today in the Albuquerque Tribune. I write a column for the newspaper that runs on the second and fourth Wednesdays of each month.