A look at the Richardson/Edwards contest

Gov. Bill Richardson ended the second quarter of the year statistically tied with John Edwards in New Hampshire polls and having raised $7 million to Edwards’ $9 million.

Three months later, there are signs that some things have changed. Edwards has climbed a bit in the polls, but there are signs that the governor might raise more money during the fundraising quarter that ends Sunday.

While both candidates were averaging about 9 percent in New Hampshire polls at the end of June, the newest poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire for CNN, had Richardson at 6 percent and Edwards at 12 percent. For Richardson, that’s a drop of five points from the UNH July poll. For Edwards, it’s a gain of three points. Hillary Clinton remained in the lead in the newest poll with 43 percent, and Barack Obama had 20 percent.

The survey of 508 adults was conducted Sept. 17-24 and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The averages of recent New Hampshire polls on Real Clear Politics place Richardson at 9 percent and Edwards at 13.5 percent.

That’s bad news for Richardson. But there’s also good news.

Edwards began on Friday an attempt to raise $1 million in the 10 days before Sunday. Richardson began on Monday the goal of raising $1 million in the week before the end of the quarter.

The fact that the governor’s campaign appeared more confident in its ability to raise the cash in a shorter time period was a sign that Richardson might have a stronger financial base than Edwards. But the way the fundraising has played out this week is an even stronger indicator.

On Monday, Richardson began three days and almost $300,000 behind Edwards in the race to reach $1 million. Richardson passed Edwards this afternoon. As of 3:20 p.m., according to his Web site, Edwards has raised $673,291 toward his goal of $1 million in 10 days. At the same time, according to his Web site, Richardson had raised $695,160 toward his goal of $1 million in a week.

Richardson has said he expects to raise somewhere in the vicinity of $6 million this quarter, which included the summer months when fundraising is most difficult. Considering that Clinton and Obama are expected to raise millions less than they did during the second quarter – perhaps a drop of as much as 50 percent – a drop of only $1 million for Richardson would be impressive.

There’s speculation that Richardson might even raise more than Edwards this quarter. Then again, the same speculation existed last quarter and turned out to be wrong.

We’ll know more next week. The bottom line: Richardson has lost some ground against Edwards in New Hampshire, but there’s still a chance he’s kept pace with or even surpassed Edwards in the ability to raise money.

Update, 3:45 p.m.

I just came across this Associated Press article reporting that Edwards has agreed to accept public funds for his campaign – another sign that he’s unable to raise the money he needs to compete with Clinton and Obama.