A new Iowa poll confirms that Gov. Bill Richardson’s support has stagnated over the last month.
That’s bad news for a presidential candidate whose support climbed steadily in the two months before that. Richardson is solidly in fourth place in Iowa and has acknowledged he must finish third or better in the nation’s first presidential nominating contest.
The new Zogby poll released today has Hillary Clinton leading among Iowa likely caucus goers with 30 percent of the vote, John Edwards with 23 percent, Barack Obama with 19 percent and Richardson with 10 percent. The poll finds that 13 percent remain undecided.
The poll, which was conducted Friday through Sunday, surveyed 503 likely Democratic caucus goers and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.
Zogby had this to say about Richardson, comparing its new poll to its May poll that had him at 6 percent in Iowa and its January poll that had him at 1 percent:
“Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, has quietly built a constituency in Iowa, and now holds onto a strong fourth-place position,” Zogby’s news release states. “… Mentioned by pundits as a possible vice presidential candidate because of his extensive foreign-policy experience and his political success in what will be a key state in the general election next year, he is gradually building support for the top job.”
But Zogby isn’t accounting for polls conducted by other companies, which reveal that Richardson hasn’t gained ground in the last month. Zogby’s new poll is the sixth in the last month to place Richardson’s support at between 9 and 13 percent in Iowa, with the two most recent polls placing his support at 10 and 9 percent.
Real Clear Politics says Richardson’s average poll score is 11.2 percent. Obama’s average is 19.5 percent, Edwards’ is 24.8 percent and Clinton’s is 26.2 percent. In recent weeks, Clinton’s average score in Iowa has risen. So has Obama’s, and while Richardson’s has stagnated, Edwards’ has fallen.
There is still a lot of good news in the new poll for Richardson. Only he and Clinton gained ground from the group’s last poll in May, when Edwards was at 26 percent, Clinton was at 24 percent, Obama was at 22 percent and Richardson was at 6 percent. In addition, Richardson’s support among moderate Democrats was 18 percent in the new poll, only one point behind Obama’s 19 percent.
The poll was conducted on the two days prior to Sunday’s debate in Iowa and on the day of the debate – the first in which Richardson impressed. So it’s possible that any bump he might experience as a result of his debate performance isn’t reflected in this poll. The next poll will be interesting.
Richardson has spent much of the last month in Iowa, but is in Santa Fe today before heading to Wyoming this evening for a fundraiser. The will then be in Nevada for a candidate forum and other events on Wednesday and Thursday before heading to California for another forum Thursday afternoon. He will return to Nevada that evening for another event.
Richardson plans to spend Friday, Saturday and Sunday in New Hampshire before returning to Iowa on Monday for two days. He will be in New Mexico on Aug. 30 and will attend fundraisers in Texas on Aug. 31.
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