For the first time, Gov. Bill Richardson has moved past one of the top three Democratic presidential candidates in an independent poll in an important primary state.
Richardson is in third place, and two points ahead of John Edwards, in the latest CNN/WMUR/UNH poll released today.
The new poll has Hillary Clinton in the lead with 36 percent, Barack Obama at 27 percent, Richardson at 11 percent and Edwards at 9 percent. A month ago, Clinton led with 39 percent, Obama had 24 percent, Edwards had 14 percent and Richardson had 11 percent.
So Richardson hasn’t gained any ground in the last month, but Edwards has fallen.
Still, the move is quite significant, as some predicted that Richardson would pass Edwards and move into third place during this fundraising quarter. A poll conducted for Richardson’s campaign has him ahead of Obama among the most likely voters in Iowa, but no independent poll has confirmed that, so this is the first independent poll to have Richardson in the top three in any state besides New Mexico, which he’s winning.
“Voters are learning who Bill Richardson is and are hearing his message, and we’re very pleased with the position of the campaign,” said Richardson campaign manager Dave Contarino. “In February 2007, at the beginning of this campaign, Bill Richardson was tied for sixth place at 1 percent in this poll. To be in double digits in third place at this point demonstrates genuine momentum.”
The poll, conducted July 9-17 by the University of New Hampshire, surveyed 333 likely Democratic voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.5 percent.
The poll contradicts one released Monday, conducted by Research 2000 for the Concord Monitor, that had Edwards at 15 percent and Richardson at 7 percent. When Al Gore was added to the mix in the Monitor poll, Richardson was at 8 percent and Edwards was at 10 percent.
When Gore was included in the new poll, Richardson was still ahead of Edwards, 10 percent to 8 percent.
Both polls generally have a reputation for accuracy, but most recent polls in New Hampshire have Richardson moving up and Edwards moving down, so the newest poll is more in line with the trend.
The Monitor poll was of 400 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted July 9-11. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. Unless Richardson made a significant surge between July 12 and today, something is wrong with one of the polls.
Either way, Richardson’s campaign can tout this newest, independent poll to further back its claim that the governor has arrived at the top-tier of Democratic presidential hopefuls. The news should give an additional boost to his campaign.
For the first time, Gov. Bill Richardson has moved past one of the top three Democratic presidential candidates in an independent poll in an important primary state.