Polling analysis site predicts guv will win Iowa

A well-read national Web site that analyzes polls is predicting that Gov. Bill Richardson will win Iowa’s Jan. 14 caucus – the first-in-the-nation contest that could catapult him to the Democratic nomination.

An analysis on USA Election Polls points out that Richardson, six months ago, was at about 1 percent in both Iowa and New Hampshire but, if you average out recent polls in those states, he’s at 9.8 percent in Iowa and 8.7 percent in New Hampshire.

The site also considers a recent poll conducted by Fairbank Maslin Maullin and Associates for the Richardson campaign that had him at 13 percent in Iowa and, if only the most likely voters are considered, 18 percent and ahead of Barack Obama in that state.

Before the 2004 Iowa Caucus, the site points out, Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt were considered the frontrunners, but they came in third and fourth, respectively, in the state.

“Iowa voters do not look to the polls to help them determine who to vote for,” the site’s analysis states. “They vote based on the issues and the candidates themselves.”

Well then, what do Iowa Democrats like about Richardson?

“Bill Richardson is winning the issues war because he is the only Democratic candidate running for president that is a governor,” the analysis states. “Iowans traditionally prefer governors because they have executive experience.”

The site was successful at predicting in February and March that Richardson would rise in the polls, and it predicted that his momentum was stronger than Obama’s in Iowa just before a recent Richardson campaign poll put the governor ahead of the Illinois senator among the most likely voters.

No independent polls have shown Richardson overtaking Obama for third place in Iowa.

Richardson has a long way to go nationally, USA Election Polls says. And he’ll have a hard time winning New Hampshire because there are three candidates stronger than him there, whereas USA Election Polls believes that, at this point, Richardson is stronger than Obama in Iowa.

An Obama win in New Hampshire could erase a Richardson win in Iowa, the site states. But such hurdles can be overcome, according to USA Election Polls, and “time is on Richardson’s side.”

The site points out that Richardson “is committed to a positive campaign,” which, thus far, has been mostly true, “and favorability ratings go a long way.” He’s also “a very likeable candidate” and “not likely to be attacked because he would never be considered a top-tier candidate until after Iowa and he wins.”

In addition, Richardson has lower familiarity ratings than Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, but, according to USA Election Polls, “the more familiar voters are with him, the more they like him,” so he’s likely to continue to gain as more and more voters become familiar with him.

Lastly, the site says, the frontrunners are likely to make visible mistakes in the next few months that will gain a lot of attention, like the recent discussion between Clinton and Edwards in front of an open microphone about excluding some other candidates from future debates.

There is an X-factor in Iowa. USA Election Polls says a drop in the polls for Clinton and Edwards “would surely open the door for an Al Gore candidacy.” Even though he’s not in the race, Gore is at about 15 percent in Iowa polls that have included him.

“Many believe that Gore is not yet running in this race so that Clinton, Edwards and Obama can beat up on each other a bit,” the site states.

Want to know who’s behind the USA Election Polls site? It’s a guy named David Terr, a mathematician. You can learn more about him by clicking here.