Richardson sees significant gain in new Iowa poll

For the first time, Gov. Bill Richardson’s presidential campaign is experiencing a significant jump in a poll.

American Research Group’s newest poll of Iowa, which was released yesterday, had Richardson at 5 percent among likely participants in the Democratic caucus in that important primary state. That’s up from 1 percent a month ago.

Richardson has said repeatedly that he’s gaining in the polls, but this is his first significant climb in a scientific, independent poll.

The newest survey was conducted April 27-30. At the time, the Richardson campaign was running television commercials in Iowa and New Hampshire – the first run by any Democratic presidential candidate. The earlier survey that had him at 1 percent was conducted at the end of March.

The newest survey, of 600 likely Democratic caucus goers, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Though Richardson’s gain is significant, he placed fifth in the poll. John Edwards led the pack with 27 percent. Hillary Clinton had 23 percent. Barack Obama had 19 percent and Joe Biden had six percent.

No other candidate registered above 2 percent.

Biden’s gain, up from 2 percent in March, was as significant as Richardson’s, and he did it without television commercials. Obama gained 3 percent in the last month, while Clinton dropped 11 percent and Edwards dropped six percent.

Some 16 percent were undecided in last week’s poll, up from 10 percent in March.

The poll was conducted in the three days following the April 26 Democratic presidential candidate debate, which is also significant. It’s likely that the gains of Richardson, Biden and Obama, and the losses of Clinton and Edwards, were at least in part a result of their debate performances.

Also interesting is the breakdown of those surveyed. The poll surveyed 475 Democrats and 125 independents who said they will likely take part in the Democratic caucus in January. In the newest poll, Edwards had the support of 29 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of independents. Clinton had the support of 23 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of independents. Obama had the support of 22 percent of Democrats but only 10 percent of independents, and Biden had the support of 7 percent of Democrats but only 1 percent of independents.

Richardson, on the other hand, had the support of only 3 percent of Democrats, but was picked by 11 percent of independents surveyed, making him third most popular among independents.

Undecideds accounted for 12 percent of Democrats and 33 percent of independents surveyed.