Heath Haussamen / NMPolitics.net
A scene from an early voting location in Doña Ana County on Wednesday.
A mid-day voting update shows turnout in Doña Ana County swinging back a bit to Democrats, which is obviously good news for their candidates, and especially Xochitl Torres Small in the 2nd Congressional District race.
Democrats lead Election Day voting in that county 47 percent to 32 percent over Republicans, according to the latest numbers released by the Secretary of State’s Office at 1:30 p.m. When you combine early, absentee and Election Day voting through 1:30 p.m., Democrats lead in turnout in the county by 20 points — 51 percent to 31 percent.
That’s significant because 46 percent of the county’s registered voters are Democrats, and 26 percent are Republicans. When the first Election Day voting numbers were released at 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday, Republicans were grabbing a disproportionate share of the Election Day vote in Doña Ana County — 46 percent were Democrats; 34 percent were Republicans — and making up some of the ground they lost in early voting.
Of course, registered independents also make up a sizable share of the electorate. How they’ll vote isn’t clear.
But, as I reported earlier, Torres Small needs huge turnout and a big win in blue Doña Ana County to offset turnout in the eastern portion of the congressional district, which votes overwhelmingly red and favors Republican Yvette Herrell. That’s why I’m watching Doña Ana County’s vote so closely today. This race’s outcome will be determined at least in part by turnout in Doña Ana County, and I’m trying to get a sense of how things may end up.
The high Election Day voting in Doña Ana County could mean this race is as close as polling suggested — a statistical tie. But we won’t know for sure until the votes are counted.
Statewide, almost 90,000 people had voted on Election Day by 1:30 p.m. Coupled with turnout of almost 431,000 in early and absentee voting, that has some election watchers wondering if turnout will be closer to 700,000 in New Mexico when all is said and done. Conventional wisdom placed turnout closer to 600,000.
There is historically high turnout in the final three hours of voting before polls close at 7 p.m. Expect turnout to continue to shoot up.
Higher-than-expected turnout is likely good for Democrats statewide, including Torres Small. But we won’t really know until we have results. And unusually high turnout could come with some surprises.