Heath Haussamen / NMPolitics.net
A scene from an early voting location in Doña Ana County on Wednesday.
It’s unquestionable that the number of people who voted early and absentee in New Mexico was historic.
In all, 430,796 people have already voted in this year’s midterm elections in New Mexico. That’s 34 percent of registered voters already having cast ballots before Election Day. That compares with 250,708 in 2014, the last time the same races were on the ballot, and 297,768 in 2010, the last time there was a close governor’s race.
“A healthy democracy requires healthy voter participation, and with over 430,000 New Mexicans having already voted this year, it’s clear that our democracy is alive and well,” Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver said.
Voting is especially impressive in a handful of counties. In Los Alamos, more than 50 percent of registered voters cast ballots early. In Santa Fe it was 44 percent. In Bernalillo it was 40 percent. In Sierra it was 39 and in Sandoval it was 38.
Doña Ana County, which saw an early spike in turnout that led the state, in the end was dragging down the statewide percentage of people who voted early. While 34 percent have already voted statewide, the percentage in Doña Ana County is 30.
That’s nothing to be ashamed of. It’s an improvement in a county that has been working hard to improve its historically mediocre voter turnout. County Clerk Amanda López Askin called the turnout “incredible.”
“I could not be prouder of our excellent participation in democracy, and I am hoping that this voting momentum takes us into a very busy Election Day,” she said.
But it’s also a reminder of caution for people who are predicting or hoping for historic overall turnout in this year’s election. Yes, turnout has generally been up in elections in New Mexico and across the United States since President Donald Trump was elected in 2016. But there’s another trend too: More and more people are choosing to vote early instead of waiting for Election Day.
So while it’s possible the energy we’ve seen so far will continue through Election Day, it’s also possible it won’t. Maybe the most motivated voters have already cast ballots. If you’d predicted overall election turnout in the first few days of early voting based on turnout at the time, you would have guessed that Doña Ana County would lead the state. And you would have been wrong.
All the polling we’ve seen is based on models that try to predict turnout. But we don’t yet know what turnout will look like when all is said and done, and what that will mean in the state’s most contested races.
We won’t until after the polls close on Tuesday at 7 p.m.
Stay tuned.