A journalist’s view of the groundswell that lifted Torres Small to victory

COMMENTARY: When I wrote in January that the coming blue wave probably wouldn’t be strong enough for Democrats to win outgoing U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce’s House seat, I didn’t yet fully understand what was happening.

Like many journalists, I missed the energy in rural America that powered Donald Trump’s 2016 victory. I resolved after Trump won to work to better understand how systems are impacting people – and how people are responding.

Since then, I’ve been watching the growing groundswell of left-leaning energy in and around Las Cruces.

I first saw it on Jan. 21, 2017. Organizers expected a few dozen people to attend the Women’s March. Instead, 1,500 people marched around downtown and held a spontaneous rally on the plaza.

Progressives had dominated local politics for a decade. This movement was different. It had a greater focus on people of color, women and young people. It included liberal and conservative Democrats, and independents.

In this burgeoning border and college city, it was about protecting immigrants and Muslims, defending women’s rights and the environment, and more.

The reasons people supported Trump were complicated. This movement was too.

It’s the sort of movement journalists and other analysts can miss if they’re studying polls, campaign finance reports and voter registration data but not witnessing what’s happening on the ground.

So when two polls in September produced different results in the congressional race between Republican Yvette Herrell and Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, I dug into the methodology. The Albuquerque Journal poll, which had Herrell leading by 7 points, assumed not many new people would join the usual voters.

The New York Times polling sample, on the other hand, accounted for new voters. It had the race statistically tied.

The expansive congressional district has long been a GOP stronghold – but one Democrats could win if Las Crucens voted. Turnout in local Las Cruces elections had increased since Trump won. People were even more excited about sending a Democrat to Washington to combat the Trump agenda. I knew The Times poll was closer to reality.

So in October I wrote that my previous analysis was wrong. I declared the congressional race a toss-up. Then I waited for Election Day.

That’s when I saw it happening.

There were lines at every polling place I visited. Some lasted all day. After the polls closed, people were still waiting to vote all over the county. And the clerk had received a flood of absentee ballots.

That delayed the reporting of results from Doña Ana County. I knew early results showing Herrell ahead by several thousand votes didn’t account for the energy I’d seen here.

I told myself to wait. I didn’t want to erroneously declare the race over.

Torres Small gained ground as the night progressed, but slowly. There were thousands of outstanding votes in Doña Ana County, but I didn’t know how many.

Then several news outlets declared Herrell the winner. Herrell joined them. I was asked during a radio interview why I wasn’t doing the same. I said some of those analysts were better at math than me, but I didn’t see what they saw.

I published an article stating that the race wasn’t over. It shocked many people.

They shouldn’t have been shocked.

The energy I’d seen in Las Cruces since early 2017 won Torres Small an eye-popping 78 percent of the 8,258 absentee ballots that were added to the tally Wednesday evening. Just like that, Torres Small won.

Congratulations, congresswoman-elect. I understand that voters are sending you to Washington to watchdog the president. I’ll be watchdogging you.

Heath Haussamen is NMPolitics.net’s editor and publisher. Agree with his opinion? Disagree? NMPolitics.net welcomes your views. Learn about submitting your own commentary here.