Courtesy photos
Yvette Herrell, left, and Xochitl Torres Small
COMMENTARY: It’s been clear for some time that there’s a blue wave sweeping across the United States since the 2016 election of President Donald Trump. In January, I wrote that I didn’t expect that wave to snag southern New Mexico’s U.S. House seat.
It seems I may have been wrong.
Re-reading that column 10 months later, its logic is solid. “To have a shot at winning, Democrats will have to tap into those values – the libertarian-leaning and morally conservative energy that pervades much of southern New Mexico,” I wrote. “…Democrats nationally are pushing for gun control. That’s a non-starter for many rural folks who are far from a sheriff’s deputy when they need help. A campaign to defend an endangered species or a mesa from ranching or drilling lands with a thud for many whose jobs are dependent on those industries.”
And while anything was possible, I wrote in January that even if Democrats won the seat this year, “they are unlikely to hold it for long. They’d have to make a more intentional and long-term effort to organize throughout the district and build new support systems for people. And the region would have to become less dependent on oil, gas and ranching.”
Heath Haussamen
That was before we had actual candidates. And it was before another 10 months of Trump’s presidency handed us family separations at the border, the conservative takeover of the U.S. Supreme Court and other actions that have further activated Democratic voters.
The Republican candidate is state Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo. She wasn’t that well known outside her home county before the race. She won the primary in part because GOP voters were rejecting the campaign tactics of the better-known candidate, former Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, because he hired Gov. Susana Martinez’s media guy, Jay McCleskey, who has become toxic in some Republican circles. And Herrell won the primary by running far to the right.
So perhaps the most significant dynamic that has changed in this race since I wrote about it in January is that I expected a big-name Republican candidate, with an established ability to fundraise and win over moderate voters. Someone like outgoing state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, or outgoing Lt. Gov. John Sanchez.
That didn’t happen. That reality gave Democrats an opening I didn’t expect.
The Democratic candidate is Xochitl Torres Small of Las Cruces. She also wasn’t that well known before this race — but she’s from the Democratic population center in the 2nd District, she’s married to a popular Democratic state representative, and she had the benefit of the anti-Trump energy to boost her campaign.
It turns out Torres Small is an excellent campaigner. She was able to pull together most of the party’s base in spite of a divisive primary battle while effectively running to the middle. Herrell, on the other hand, has run a far-right, Trump-supporting campaign — and the 2nd District is evenly divided about Trump, so Herrell’s campaign immediately turns off half of potential voters and provides an opening for a Democrat.
Even the outgoing representative of the district, Republican Steve Pearce, has been intentional over the years about reaching out to Democrats and working to be — or at least appear — moderate. It’s part of what made him invincible in the 2nd District. There are more Democrats in the district than Republicans, but many of them prefer sending moderate Republicans to Washington.
Herrell has made little effort to model her campaign after Pearce’s success. On her campaign website she promotes being “a consistent champion of initiatives that limit the size and scope of government, enhance free markets, and define federalism,” being named “the ‘Most Conservative Member’ of the State House,” co-founding “the Balanced Budget Amendment Task Force and the Article V Caucus,” and sitting “on the National Board of the American Legislative Exchange Council.” The four “issues” she highlights on her website are opposition to abortion, being “the only candidate who supported President Trump from Day 1 of his campaign” on border and immigration issues, being an NRA member who believes the 2nd Amendment is “God-given and unable to be abridged by man,” and shrinking the size and scope of government.
Torres Small, on the other hand, has run a campaign right down the middle, and arguably more in the tradition of Pearce. In TV ads she talks about the importance of border security (speaking about immigration reform pretty much the same way Pearce does), gets endorsed by a former Republican mayor from Herrell’s hometown and shoots a shotgun (albeit without eye protection, a mistake that justifiably earned her some criticism).
The state Democratic Party even sent out a news release a few weeks ago alerting the media to the fact that Torres Small breaks with many other Democrats on health-care reform in an attempt to push voters in the 2nd District to believe Torres Small isn’t really that much of a Democrat.
The results are clear: The candidates and outside groups are spending millions on the race because they all, on both sides, believe either candidate could win. Torres Small’s $1.9 million fundraising haul in the last quarter appeared to be a record among New Mexicans running for U.S. House seats. The most prominent independent analysts list the race as a toss-up. Recent polls confirm that the candidates are neck-and-neck as they approach the finish line.
Unusually high early voter turnout in the Las Cruces area, which is driven by Democrats, is another indicator that Torres Small can win.
Even if she wins, I’ll have questions about Torres Small’s ability to hold the seat beyond two years. (That’s a column for another time.) But for now, she and Democrats deserve credit for a solid effort to make this race a toss-up.
The race is historic in that either candidate would be the first woman to represent the district, and Torres Small would be the first person of color.
Who will emerge victorious on Election Day? That’s up to you, the voters in the 2nd District. I don’t endorse political candidates. I don’t believe news organizations should make endorsements. I’ll leave this race in your capable hands.
Heath Haussamen is NMPolitics.net’s editor and publisher. Agree with his opinion? Disagree? NMPolitics.net welcomes your views. Learn about submitting your own commentary here.