Courtesy photos
Yvette Herrell, left, and Xochitl Torres Small
A poll conducted for Republican Yvette Herrell’s campaign shows her leading Democrat Xochitl Torres Small by four points in the race to replace Steve Pearce in the U.S. House of Representatives.
The poll, released on Friday to Roll Call, shows Herrell leading 49 percent to 45 percent — within the margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. It’s the third poll to show a close race in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.
A recent poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal showed Herrell with a 7-point lead. Another recent poll conducted for The New York Times showed Torres Small leading by 1 point.
The difference, as I recently wrote, may be in who those two polls sampled. The Times’ poll took a more optimistic view of potential new voters turning out this year who didn’t vote in 2014 or 2016. That was an attempt to account for the energy seen in some recent special elections across the nation.
The Journal, on the other hand, sampled registered voters who cast ballots in 2014 and 2016 and said they were likely to vote this year. That poll’s model assumes a relatively stable voter turnout trend.
The new poll, a survey of 400 likely voters conducted by The Tarrance Group, found 6 percent of voters undecided. It was conducted between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2.
The election is Nov. 6.