Heath Haussamen / NMPolitics.net
A scene from a voting center in Doña Ana County.
The Albuquerque Journal has released polls of the upcoming races for governor, U.S. Senate and two U.S. House seats:
• In the governor’s race, Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham led Republican Steve Pearce by seven percentage points, 50-43 percent.
• Democrat Martin Heinrich was way ahead in the U.S. Senate race, getting the support of 47 percent of those polled compared to 26 percent for Republican Mick Rich and 16 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson.
• In Southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District race, Republican Yvette Herrell led Democrat Xochitl Torres Small by seven points, 48 percent-41 percent.
• In the Albuquerque-area 1st Congressional District race, Democrat Deb Haaland led Republican Janice Arnold-Jones by eight points, 49 percent-41 percent, with Libertarian Lloyd Princeton getting the support of 3 percent of those polled.
In other words, barring a stunning turnaround or a race-changing event, you can see how these races are headed: Heinrich is almost certain to win. Lujan Grisham, Herrell and Haaland are likely to win. The Journal’s polls, conducted by Brian Sanderoff’s Research and Polling, Inc., are generally considered the best in New Mexico.
The statewide poll for governor and U.S. Senate sampled 966 registered voters who cast ballots in 2014 and 2016 and said they were likely to vote this year, the Journal reported. The poll was conducted Sept. 7-13 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The survey used live interviewers and “multiple callbacks” to households that didn’t initially answer. The Journal said 69 percent of those surveyed were on cell phones and 31 percent were reached by landline.
The 2nd District poll was of 405 people using the same methodology to determine likely voters. In that instance, 74 percent of those surveyed were on cell phones and 26 percent were reached by landline. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
The 1st District poll was of 410 people using the same methodology to determine likely voters. In that instance, 67 percent of those surveyed were on cell phones and 33 percent were reached by landline. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.
Interestingly, The New York Times is currently surveying the 2nd District race and showing its results in real-time as interviewers reach likely voters and record responses. You can keep up with that poll here. It may show a slightly closer race than the Journal’s poll, but as of publication time it still has Herrell in the lead.