Presidential frontrunner offers Mexico a new deal in Ciudad Juárez

Defying local fears of a poor turnout because of the Easter holiday, the people arrived by the thousands. They were old, young, students, teachers, workers, indigenous and non-indigenous, believers and non-believers. Entire families came in tow.

Withstanding a hot sun warming up Easter morning, enthusiastic supporters of Mexican presidential frontrunner Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO as he is popularly called, gathered at the Benito Juárez Monument near downtown Ciudad Juárez, where their man delivered a stinging critique Mexico’s economic model and proposed sweeping changes he said will benefit the nation’s financially struggling majority.

While waiting for López Obrador to speak, maquiladora (border export factory) worker Jose Lopez said he liked the three-time presidential contender because “he’s more transparent than others.” Like many juarenses, Lopez said low wages and high living costs make getting by a difficult proposition. “You buy a television in December and you pawn it in January,” Lopez said. “(AMLO) can solve some of the problems we have here, like hunger and delinquency.”

Glenda Simental also works in a maquiladora, earning the equivalent of about $77 per week. The single mom said she grappled not only with rising food costs but expensive school fees for her children, despite a law that prohibits schools from charging mandatory fees. “You have to work a lot. It’s not easy to support kids in school,” Simental said. “Many principals won’t allow students in without paying.”

Declaring her reasons for supporting López Obrador, the 16-year resident of Juárez said simply, “He has good proposals… we want a change.”

As people filed onto the monument grounds, a taped tune of the popular Mexican rock/ska combo Panteon Rococo, La Carencia, played to the popular mood. Now as then, the 2002 hit song’s words resonate with many:

“…Now you can’t get ahead
And dozens and dozens of years have passed
Well, in a globalized world
The poor people have no place
And scarcity is up
And wages down…”

Besides colorful T-shirts and caps representing the three political parties that form AMLO’s “We Will Make History Together” electoral coalition, banners from other organizations and social movements peppered the campaign site, displaying the presence of the small farmer-based National Ayala Plan, the Popular Socialist Party, Progressive Social Networks of Ciudad Juárez and, of course, the former Mexican contract workers, or braceros, who continue struggling for compensation owed to them for work in the U.S. decades ago. The latter meet weekly at the Benito Juárez Monument in a stubborn effort to keep their movement alive even as many of the old farmworkers die off.

Taking a humorous swipe at stories that have attempted to link López Obrador to Russia, a sign held above the crowd read “Russian Teachers for AMLOvsy.” In addition to people from other parts of Chihuahua state, López Obrador’s supporters came from the United States — including from Santa Fe, Albuquerque and El Paso.

Professor López Obrador?

Attired in a plain white shirt and casual slacks, López Obrador took to the stage. After several weeks of an official time-out decreed between the primary and general phases of the 2018 election campaign, the candidate’s Easter Sunday appearance in Juárez marked the kick-off of his general campaign, which will last almost three months until election day on July 1, per electoral ground rules.

López Obrador’s three opponents also held Easter day events: Ricardo Anaya at a famous religious center and migrant-sending region in the state of Jalisco, Jose Antonio Meade in tropical Yucatan, and Margarita Zavala in violence-torn Mexico State.

AMLO’s Juárez speech was splashed with Mexican history, indigenous cosmology, nationalism and modern global politics and economics. He began his talk by reminding the audience how Paso del Norte (the old name of Ciudad Juárez) was the place where President Benito Juárez and his cabinet found refuge while resisting the conservatives and French invaders during the 1860s. In May 1911, the renamed city of Ciudad Juárez was the scene of the “decisive battle” of the Mexican Revolution that overthrew dictator Porfirio Diaz and led to Francisco Madero’s ascendancy to the presidency, AMLO said.

“That’s why we decided to start our campaign here,” he added.

The 64-year-old politician also cited contemporary considerations for choosing Juárez, high among them the economic squeeze on the working class and the women’s murders, or feminicides, “that continue happening across the country… it wasn’t a coincidence that Pope Francisco came here more than two years ago.”

López Obrador came to Juárez at a delicate and uncertain moment in the city’s history. Though new businesses are opening and a smattering of tour buses is again visible on the streets, deep scars remain from the so-called drug war of 2008-2012 that left upwards of 12,000 murdered and tens of thousands or more displaced, according to various academic and media accounts. Although juarenses are known for their tough spirit, many locals worry about continued crime and a new spurt in drug-related violence.

In a lengthy discourse brimming with numbers that might even have passed as an economic professor’s lecture, López Obrador slammed Mexico’s “neo-liberal model” of trickle down economics, blaming it for 30 years of economic stagnation while enriching a few at the expense of the many.

Corruption, meanwhile, was “institutionalized” in the political realm, transforming graft and theft into “the principle function of political power,” the former Mexico City mayor maintained. Under a López Obrador administration, the federal government would stop acting as “a factory for the new rich,” the presidential hopeful promised.

As drones from media organizations hovered over the crowd, AMLO laid out plans for the rebirth of Mexico and a revival of the internal economy. “The national economy is going to produce what we consume here in Mexico,” he insisted.

In an astute recognition of Juárez as a magnet-like city that attracts migrants from across the Mexican Republic and beyond who preserve family ties back home, López Obrador detailed proposals aimed at creating jobs by rebuilding earthquake damaged infrastructure in southern Mexico with human hands instead of machines; planting more than two million acres of fruit and timber-producing trees in the southeastern section of the country; running a bullet train in the international tourist haven of the Mayan Riviera; rebuilding ports on the Gulf and Pacific coasts; and deploying a new freight train for transporting the goods of the Asian trade to the U.S.

For Ciudad Juárez and the northern border region, AMLO proposed a free trade zone similar to the special economic regimes that existed at different times in the northern frontier of Mexico dating back to the 1800s. The new zone would move Mexican customs regulations and inspections to about 18 miles outside Ciudad Juárez and other border locales.

Eliciting applause, the onetime partner of billionaire Carlos Slim in the redevelopment of downtown Mexico City pledged breaks for the border, including the elimination of an income tax, the lowering of high gasoline prices to U.S. levels, and the slashing in half of the highly unpopular value added sales tax from 16 percent to 8 percent.

Justifying the tax cuts, the candidate specifically mentioned the percentages of equivalent taxes charges in U.S. border states where many Mexicans shop, including New Mexico, saying the Mexican tax should conform to the neighbors’ taxes.

AMLO’s border proposals put pressure on the other candidates to focus more attention on a region that, like the U.S. side, is often marginalized or misunderstood in national politics.

In Juárez, López Obrador additionally promised to double the minimum wage in the envisioned free trade zone in 2019, provide support to students and young people embarking on careers, scuttle a controversial education reform law, double senior pensions, pay farmers guaranteed prices, and extend internet and cellphone service to the entire country.

His campaign pledges form a 50-point political program published in the newspaper of López Obrador’s National Movement for the Regeneration of Mexico (Morena) political party, Regeneracion, which was distributed en masse at the Juárez campaign rally. In U.S. political terms, think New Deal.

Critics deride the Tabasco-born politico as an irresponsible populist who will wreck the economy and lead Mexico down the path of Venezuela. In an important political shift, however, the campaign of López Obrador’s leading opponent, Ricardo Anaya of the conservative PAN party, is apparently shirking the Venezuela/communist imputation in favor of one that likens AMLO to a Mexican historical figure: former President Luis Echeverria (1970-76), a man who is remembered for the economic crises and violent bouts of repression against opponents during his administration.

“The thesis of food self-sufficiency, of timber, of this and that authoritarian, nationalist or statist idea of López Obrador, appear like two drops of water, those of Luis Echeverria,” former chancellor and current Anaya campaign coordinator Jorge Castaneda told Proceso magazine. “They aren’t from (Hugo) Chavez, Evo Morales or the Kirchners. They are from Echeverria.”

López Obrador insisted in Juárez that revenue is available for his planned reforms, and it can be sourced by slashing the perks and privileges of the federal bureaucracy to the tune of almost $30 billion.

Relationship with the U.S.

Inevitably, the left nationalist political leader addressed U.S.-Mexico relations, and without mentioning U.S. President Donald Trump by name, demanded a mutually respectful relationship between two neighbors.

The international press coverage quickly picked up on López Obrador’s vow that he would not to allow Mexico to be a “pinata” for any foreign government. “Social problems aren’t solved with walls or by force,” he said.

Less noticed by the international media were AMLO’s Juárez statements about the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Stressing that he was not against NAFTA, López Obrador nevertheless criticized the pact for not living up to expectations.

“If NAFTA benefited Mexico, our economy wouldn’t be stagnated,” he told the crowd.

The veteran political leader said it would be “convenient” to wait for the signing of a new trade agreement until after the July 1 Mexican election, with a new NAFTA containing provisions on wages and migration.

More than a quarter century ago, immigrant advocates who had hoped the free trade agreement would encompass the immigration question were sorely disappointed when the NAFTA negotiators excluded the issue from the trinational pact.

López Obrador’s Juárez comments came before President Trump again threatened to scuttle NAFTA and, in a surprise move, announced his desire to dispatch U.S. troops to the border. In response, AMLO said in the state of Coahuila on Monday that Mexicans would peacefully demonstrate their opposition, dressed in white, along the length of the border if the U.S. militarizes the region.

Trump’s announcement rapidly made headlines in the Mexican press as political actors swung into motion. Chancellor Luis Videgaray wrote on Twitter that the Mexican government had requested through “official channels” a clarification of Trump’s statement, while Jose Antonio Meade, presidential candidate for current Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto’s ruling PRI party, tweeted that deploying U.S. soldiers on the border would constitute an “inadmissible offense against our country.”

Yet López Obrador concluded his Juárez speech on an optimistic note, telling his listeners, “I am confident the national crisis is ready to end and that nobody can obscure in a lasting way the name of Mexico or stop the cause of justice from triumphing.”

“It may be an ideal, a utopia, something unachievable, but we are now many, those of you who are here enduring the sun, and millions of more Mexicans who want peace with justice and dignity, sustainable development, the rule of law, well being, the good life,” he said.

Thousands of supporters then joined in shouts of “Viva Mexico” “President,” and “It’s an honor to be with López Obrador.” They raised clenched fists and belted out the Mexican national anthem.

The hefty turnout in Juárez marked a fresh chapter for the longtime presidential hopeful, whose previous runs witnessed weak support in the city and northern border region, historically divided between the PRI and PAN parties.

“López Obrador’s movement has grown a lot in Chihuahua and Juárez,” said campaign activist Maria Eugenia Garcia.

Team AMLO

Apart from López Obrador’s wife Beatriz Gutierrez Muller, a platoon of prominent supporters including senatorial candidates from the Morena party accompanied their standard bearer to Juárez. Among them was Nestora Salgado, a former commander of the indigenous-based community police in the southern state of Guerrero who was imprisoned by Mexican authorities in 2013, accused of kidnapping.

Charging that Salgado was framed-up because of the crackdowns she led on organized criminal bands, supporters waged an international campaign for her freedom that drew the support of several U.S. congressional representatives. Released from prison in 2016, Salgado is now running for the Senate on the Morena ticket in Guerrero. Nonetheless, the first-time candidate is not sure she’ll be able to campaign freely on her home turf.

“I don’t feel secure campaigning there because of the threats that have been made against me,” Salgado told this reporter. A dual U.S.-Mexican citizen, Salgado credited the global grassroots for her release.

“Freedom was the fruit of the social struggle, not only of the Mexican people but also the international organizations that recognized the arbitrariness of the detention,” she added.

In the event of a heavy vote for López Obrador and Morena, Salgado is virtually guaranteed a seat in the Mexican Senate, an electoral outcome that is viewed with trepidation in some quarters of Guerrero’s ruling circles. If she’s elected senator, Salgado vowed to be a “voice of the forgotten, to be the face of those who aren’t seen,” she said.

Above all, violence in Mexico needs to end, the candidate said. “We all want peace. We all have to make it happen, because it’s not going to come on its own,” Salgado added.

Though López Obrador is leading in some polls by as much as 20 points, the political landscape could change between now and July 1. After the general campaign commenced on Easter weekend, radio and television outlets (not to mention social media networks) in Juárez and elsewhere in Mexico were immediately saturated with candidate spots. In a clear bid for the huge but slippery Millennial vote, one noteworthy spot features the boyish-looking 39-year old Ricardo Anaya chiding “Andrés Manuel” for holding “antiquated” ideas.

With a record of fraud staining previous elections, the López Obrador campaign is putting great stock in monitoring polling stations and ballot counting. Accordingly, Morena activists were visible at López Obrador’s appearance, recruiting attendees to defend the vote.

“More than anything else, it’s citizens watching votes that are counted so the election is transparent,” said Morena representative Maria Eugenia Garcia. “The goal is to have citizens at every polling booth so they are taken care of.”

Kent Paterson is an independent journalist who covers issues in the U.S./Mexico border region.