Arnold-Jones claims she’ll easily win preprimary

A big preprimary win by Janice Arnold-Jones might change the dynamics in the Republican 1st Congressional District primary, but her opponents both balk at the idea that she has such a high level of support.

Republican 1st Congressional District candidate Janice Arnold-Jones sent out an eye-popping news release earlier this week claiming she is “poised to take well over 50% of the delegates” at the preprimary nominating convention in March.

The preprimary is the preferred method of qualifying for the primary ballot. Succeeding there is also considered a sign of organizational strength and can be a big boost. Candidates do well at the state preprimary by working at a grassroots level to get their delegates elected at county preprimaries and sent to the state meeting.

It’s no secret that Arnold-Jones, a former state representative from Albuquerque and a champion of open government, has an active following. Her news release stated that her supporters “came out in force” at the county-level meetings in the five counties that are in the 1st Congressional District.

But the claim was eye-popping because Arnold-Jones is a candidate the GOP establishment usually doesn’t take seriously, and because she significantly trails both of her primary opponents, Dan Lewis and Gary Smith, in cash on hand.

Arnold-Jones said she’s confident in her claim. She told NMPolitics.net her actual expected support at the preprimary is better than what she predicted in her news release, “but I’d rather be conservative.”

“This is the grassroots of campaigning, and this is very personal,” she said in explaining how she won the support she expects to have. “People are very concerned about what is going to happen with this district, and that, first and foremost, we have someone who can stand toe to toe with the Democrats.”

Opponents balk at claim

Lewis balked at the idea that Arnold-Jones has such a high level of support among delegates to the state preprimary, which will be held March 17.

“No one outside her campaign believes she has anywhere close to 50 percent,” he said. “It’s incredibly premature, at best, for the campaign to essentially announce they’ve won the preprimary when the election is a month away.”

Smith agreed, calling Arnold-Jones’ claim “premature and rash to say the least.”

“I am confident that over the next few weeks, the delegates will make the right choice in nominating a conservative who can differentiate themselves from the Democrats and build a coalition to win in November,” he said in a prepared statement.

Even if it’s true that Arnold-Jones convinced county parties to send many of her supporters to the state preprimary convention, that doesn’t ensure those people will vote for Arnold-Jones at that meeting. The other candidates have weeks to try to peel away her support.

I asked on Facebook what people thought about Arnold-Jones’ claim. Former State Rep. Dan Foley sounded skeptical.

“In a preprimary convention it is the party insiders and hard-core Republicans that show up,” he said. “I am not sure if she has that many, but she may soon find out that what people tell you when asked is different than how they vote.”

NRCC focused on Lewis

Declaring yourself the preprimary winner before the event takes place is unusual, but not unheard of. And it can sometimes backfire.

During the 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary race, Pete Domenici Jr. sent a flier that arrived in mailboxes the same day the preprimary convention was held. The mailer screamed that the “2010 Convention Was A Great Success!”

But Domenici Jr. got only 4 percent of the vote at the contention – significantly less than the 20 percent that qualifies a candidate for the primary ballot. The gaffe got national attention in political circles and meant that Domenici Jr. had to gather lots of additional signatures to stay in the race.

Arnold-Jones was also in that race and won the support of 13 percent of delegates at the preprimary. Most of her support was in the Albuquerque area she is now seeking to represent in Congress. Like Domenici Jr., Arnold-Jones went on to lose badly to Susana Martinez in that primary.

Two years earlier, Arnold-Jones considered running for the 1st District seat in Congress but abandoned the idea after failing to meet a self-imposed target of raising $200,000 by a certain date.

Those are among the reasons the GOP establishment has tended to not take Arnold-Jones seriously. Lewis is clearly the favorite of the Washington Republican infrastructure. The fundraising arm of Republicans in the U.S. House, the National Republican Congressional Committee, recently labeled him “on the radar” and a participant in its “Young Guns” program that attempts to elect new Republicans to Congress.

“We are looking forward to working with Dan Lewis, who has already proven himself by meeting rigorous benchmarks in the ‘Young Guns’ program that will position his campaign for victory,” NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions, R-Texas, said in a news release.

“Dan Lewis’ dedication and experience enables him to advocate effectively for pro-growth policies and fight the failed status quo in Washington,” Sessions said. “This will stand in stark contrast to the Obama-Pelosi record of spending, borrowing and taxing that New Mexico families and small businesses know has failed.”

One important reason for the NRCC support: Lewis leads the way in fundraising. As of Dec. 31, he had $102,000 on hand to Smith’s $89,000 and Arnold-Jones’ $20,000. Smith’s campaign has thus far been self-financed.

Would an Arnold-Jones preprimary win change the race?

Would a preprimary win by Arnold-Jones change the race? She thinks so.

“It gives you an instant bump, not only in fundraising, but in credibility. It gives great veracity to the campaign,” said Arnold-Jones, who watched that very thing happen in 2010 for Martinez, who went on to win the gubernatorial race.

A preprimary win by Arnold-Jones could provide energy for her campaign and the race, in part because many Republicans are currently so unenthusiastic about their primary. Many were hoping Economic Development Secretary Jon Barela would run, but he declined. Meanwhile, Democrats are engaged in a spirited and unpredictable three-way primary that has their activists energized.

Arnold-Jones said her preprimary success will come in part because she’s worked hard to convince establishment Republicans that she’s the best candidate to compete against a Democrat in November.

“With diligence, that is happening,” she said. “I don’t think they believe any of the other people in the race are necessarily their darlings either, but I have worked hard to get their support and I believe I have it.”

Brian Bosh of Albuquerque said on Facebook that the GOP establishment will have to take Arnold-Jones seriously if she wins the preprimary.

“Might not be wise to declare premature victory, but Lewis represents a very different set of beliefs than her, and Smith’s campaign seems pretty quiet,” Bosh said. “The establishment means less than the mood of the people. So if it’s really a choice of two, and she wins, yes, they’ll have to take her seriously.”

Lewis isn’t predicting that he’ll win the preprimary, but he still thinks Arnold-Jones is wrong.

“We’re the campaign that has outraised every other candidate at least 4-1. We have more cash 5-1, more contributors, national attention from the NRCC,” he said. “… We take nothing for granted. We’re working hard and focused on a campaign that’s taking a conservative message to the voters. We have a campaign that’s built on more than press releases.”

Smith said he is “the only candidate who doesn’t carry the baggage of a career politician.” He said he’s the Republican voters will be able to differentiate from the Democrats’ nominee.

Of course, Arnold-Jones and Lewis also said they’re more electable.