Heather Wilson, left, and Martin Heinrich
Heinrich led Wilson 45 percent to 44 percent but well within the margin of error; 61 percent of NM voters said they approve of the job Martinez is doing
A new, bipartisan poll finds Martin Heinrich and Heather Wilson essentially tied in a potential U.S. Senate match-up and a high approval rating for Gov. Susana Martinez.
A little more than 45 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Heinrich, a Democrat, if the election were today, while 44 percent picked Wilson, a Republican.
Some 34 percent said they would “definitely” pick Wilson and 10 percent said they would “probably” pick her, while 34 percent said they would definitely pick Heinrich and 12 percent said they probably would.
Months before either candidate even faces off with others in primary elections, the survey found that only 10 percent of voters are undecided.
Susana Martinez
Wilson and Heinrich are the frontrunners in their respective primaries. Heinrich faces Hector Balderas and little-known Andres Valdez on June 5, while Wilson faces John Sanchez and Greg Sowards. The survey didn’t ask about the other candidates.
The survey also found that 61 percent of those surveyed approve of the job Martinez, a Republican, is doing as governor (34 percent “strongly” approve and 27 percent “somewhat” approve), while 27 percent disapprove (14 percent strongly and 13 percent somewhat).
The survey of 400 registered voters was conducted Jan. 2-5 and 7 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. It was conducted jointly by two companies – The Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies, and the Democratic firm Fairbank, Maslin, Maulin, Metz & Associates, for Colorado College’s 2012 State of the Rockies Project.
NM voters support conservation
The survey was primarily about conservation issues and spanned several states. Here’s what it found in New Mexico, from a news release:
“The results from the 2012 Colorado College State of the Rockies Conservation in the West poll find that New Mexico voters across the political spectrum – from Tea Party supporters to those who identify with the Occupy Wall Street movement and voters in-between – support upholding protections for clean air, clean water, natural areas and wildlife.
“Voters view New Mexico’s parks and public lands as essential to their state’s economy, and quality of life.
“The survey, completed by Lori Weigel of Public Opinion Strategies (a Republican firm) and Dave Metz of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (a Democratic firm), found that 80 percent of voters view having a strong economy and protections for New Mexico’s land and water as compatible with each other.”
There’s lots more. You can read the poll memo here.
Update, 1:10 p.m.
As Politico points out, this is a poll of registered voters, not “likely voters,” and some question its usefulness. From Politico:
“Colorado College also polled in Montana – showing Rep. Denny Rehberg with a much smaller lead than a poll taken for the conservative group American Crossroads.
“But some Republicans think it’s flawed because it used ‘registered voters’ over ‘likely voters’ as its sampling pool.”
In other words, registered voters aren’t necessarily likely to vote, so this poll may not be indicative of what would actually happen if the election were today.