Heinrich’s poll gives him a big lead over Balderas

The internal poll has Heinrich leading by 30 points; among voters who can identify both candidates, he leads Balderas by 23.

Six weeks after an independent poll showed Hector Balderas gaining ground on Martin Heinrich in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, a poll released today by Heinrich’s campaign shows him having a big lead over Balderas.

The poll, conducted for the Heinrich campaign by the firm Gerstein, Bocain, Agne Strategies, has Heinrich leading Balderas by 30 points – 52 percent to 22 percent – with 26 percent undecided. Among voters who can identify both candidates, Heinrich led by 23 points, 51 percent to 28 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

You can read the poll memo here.

In mid-December, a poll from the left-leaning Public Policy Polling had Heinrich leading Balderas by 17 points, 47 percent to 30 percent. That was an improvement for Balderas from the last time PPP polled and Heinrich led 47-24. It was noteworthy at the time that Heinrich didn’t move any closer to 50 percent while Balderas gained.

But that poll sampled 309 people, compared with the new poll’s sample of 600 likely Democratic primary voters in New Mexico, which was conducted between Jan. 8 and 11. The new poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Not surprisingly, the new Heinrich poll has lots of good news for Heinrich and little for Balderas. Here’s more from the poll memo:

• “Democratic primary voters view Heinrich incredibly favorable. 58 percent of voters give Heinrich a favorable rating, while just 12 percent view him unfavorably.  Moreover, 66 percent of voters approve of the job Heinrich is doing as Congressman. Heinrich’s standing is equally good among Hispanics and Anglos. Balderas has good standing (37 – 12 percent favorable-unfavorable, 46 percent job approval), but nowhere near as good as Heinrich’s.
• “Heinrich overpowers Balderas in a vote matchup. With a 52–22 percent lead, Heinrich dominates Balderas among every segment of the electorate. He leads 57–15 percent among Anglos and 46–30 percent among Hispanics. Heinrich also holds a strong lead in each of the state’s three congressional districts.
• “Heinrich’s lead is very robust. Heinrich’s lead is not driven by name identification; he leads 51 – 28 percent among voters who can identify both candidates.”

Heinrich outraises Wilson

The poll follows Heinrich’s announcement last week that he raised more than $483,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011 and ended it with almost $1.4 million in the bank. Balderas hasn’t yet announced his fourth-quarter fundraising, but he ended the third quarter of 2011 with $465,000 in the bank.

Heinrich even bested the fundraising of the frontrunner for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, Heather Wilson, who announced last week that she raised $375,000 in the fourth quarter and ended it with $1.1 million in the bank.