U.S. Senate candidate Heather Wilson (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
With a commanding lead in a new poll, Heather Wilson remains ‘a pretty overwhelming favorite’ to be the GOP nominee for the retiring Jeff Bingaman’s U.S. Senate seat
Heather Wilson is currently cruising toward victory in the Republican primary race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Bingaman.
On Tuesday, the left-leaning Public Policy Polling released a survey that found Wilson with the support of 55 percent of Republican primary voters to John Sanchez’s 20 percent, Greg Sowards’ 6 percent and Bill English’s 3 percent. Some 16 percent said they were undecided.
The poll, which was conducted from Saturday to Monday, had a relatively small sample size of 300 GOP primary voters, but Wilson’s lead is way beyond the relatively high margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percent.
As it has been all along. Polls released in July and April showed similar results.
Wilson, the loser of a bitter 2008 U.S. Senate primary against the right-wing Steve Pearce, entered the 2012 primary race in March with an event designed to solidify her frontrunner status that included endorsements from across the GOP political spectrum. She has only moved forward from there.
Wilson has more money than the other candidates. Though Sowards and Sanchez have spent a great deal of their own cash, Wilson is the only one who has successfully raised money from others.
Meanwhile, Sanchez hasn’t done much, at least online, since October. His website has seen few, if any, updates. His Facebook page hasn’t been updated since Oct. 13. He hasn’t tweeted since that day either.
And Sowards is just emerging from a redesign of his campaign that included replacing staff and unveiling a new website.
Can either become a credible challenger to Wilson? Perhaps not unless the other drops out of the race. Earlier this year there was an opening for an anti-Wilson candidate – some in the GOP think she’s too liberal – but while Sanchez and Sowards have battled for that position, Wilson has only grown stronger.
Wilson leads even if Johnson runs
There’s literally only good news for Wilson in the new Public Policy Polling Survey. Even among Republicans who say they’re part of the TEA Party, Wilson leads with 50 percent to Sanchez’s 22 percent, Sowards’ 6 percent and English’s 3 percent.
Wilson was viewed favorably by 68 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 17 percent. Sanchez was at 34/27 and Sowards was at 9/20 (with 71 percent not being sure).
Maybe that’s an opening for Sowards. He’s less known so he has an opportunity to shape voters’ opinions of him – but only if he can come up with the cash to do it.
Even if you throw Gary Johnson into the mix – and he has said unequivocally that he will not abandon his presidential campaign to run for Senate – Wilson leads him by 11 points, 42 percent to 31 percent.
If Johnson stays out of the Senate race, Public Policy Polling says, “Wilson looks like a pretty overwhelming favorite to be the GOP nominee.”
That’s reality.