Ron Paul
Update, Dec. 31, 8:45 p.m.: Since this blog was published on Wednesday, Mitt Romney has officially surged ahead of Ron Paul with respect to SocNets. Specifically, in this past week, Romney added 23,103 new FB Likes/Twitter Followers, while Paul fell behind with the addition of only 18,040 new FB Likes/Twitter Followers. And so the Paul “surge” was but a blip.
For the sake of perspective, President Obama added 73,647 new FB Likes/Twitter Followers this week. While it seems like the president has a huge SocNets advantage, I would bet this is only temporary given that the GOP is currently split between seven candidates to Like/Follow.
(Note: The source of my information comes from a new website at the nexus of politics and social media – whistlestop.com. Whistlestop is launching in January and will change the course of politics and “grassroots” campaigns. Watch for a blog from me on it.) Happy 2012!
Original post:
Ron Paul. Let’s chat about him.
A friend, actually Heath, suggested I write about Ron Paul’s “surge” and whether it matters in the Republican primary race.
My gut reaction to the suggestion of a Ron Paul surge is precisely this – “what surge?”
Let’s put this “surge” into perspective by looking at two things: SocNets and that decievingly unassuming state out there called Iowa. (Note that SocNets is a techie abbreviation for all things related to “social networks.” Think Facebook (FB) and Twitter.)
SocNets
Ok, let’s be frank – we are all well aware of the fact that Ron Paul is rocking it out of the park amongst the Republican field of nominees in recent months in terms of FB likes and Twitter followers.
To be specific, we know that over the past few months Paul has been adding more FB likes and Twitter followers per week than his GOP-nominee competitors. Not quite sure we can call this a surge, however, seeing that Paul’s SocNets gap advantage (per week) is narrowing. As of Wednesday of this week, for example, Paul has added 7,740 likes/followers compared to Mitt Romney’s 7,693. Last week (Dec 18-24), the gap was wider. The surge seems to be more like a blip.
But does this matter?
Do SocNets matter in general, with respect to elections? Absolutely, but that’s another blog.
Sarah Lenti
Back to Paul. Does his upward-blip on the SocNets scene matter with respect to cinching the GOP nomination? I would say no. Bear in mind that Romney still has an all-time total of around 1.4 million combined FB likes and Twitter followers to Ron Paul’s 800,000. So, all-time combined and all-in-all, Romney is still ahead.
And, just to put it in perspective: Barack Obama has 35,983,315 all-time combined, and has added 42,530 so far this week.
Iowa
Point 2, Iowa. We are all also aware of the fact that Paul is slightly ahead in Iowa, according to the most recent polling. To be exact, the latest PPP poll (Dec. 26 and 27) has Paul up by 4 points in Iowa, while the latest Real Clear Politics average (Dec. 18-27) has Paul up by 0.5 points. Contrast these numbers to Newt Gingrich’s 10-15 point lead in Iowa a few weeks ago, and one could argue that Paul has certainly gained ground.
But does this matter?
Paul’s rise in Iowa matters exactly as much as Rick Perry’s rise, then Herman Cain’s rise, then Gingrich’s rise… In other words, it doesn’t matter. Paul’s gain could evaporate tomorrow. And even if it doesn’t, he can’t compete with Romney in New Hampshire, nor Gingrich in South Carolina. So there you go. This field does not depend on Iowa.
Further, I would point you to a recent Iowa State University poll, which furthery nullifies whatever it is that Paul is currently doing in Iowa. The poll says this:
“A recent Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of likely caucusgoers found the race “remarkably fluid” with 37.8 percent of respondents indicating they were still trying to decide and another 34.1 percent only leaning towards one candidate. Only 28.1 percent indicated that they had definitely decided who they would support.”
Slow and steady
A concluding thought: Slow and steady wins the Republican presidential primary race. That’s what I think. As such, you can probably read between the lines in terms of whom I am predicting will end up being the GOP nominee. And, no, it’s not Paul. Blips, or even mini surges, don’t matter.
Slow and steady wins this race. And it’s going to be a long one.
(Disclosure: Lenti previously worked on Mitt Romney’s policy book, as a researcher, in 2008 and 2009. She is currently a political consultant and would urge you to check out a favorite site – sglf.org.)
Sarah Lenti is the blogger behind NMPolitics.net’s The Savvy. E-mail her at sarah@nmpolitics.net.