The U.S. Capitol building (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
Wilson remains way ahead, and Heinrich has a spectacular fundraising quarter; the Democrats all have solid fundraising quarters in CD1, but the Republicans don’t
Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Martin Heinrich are solid frontrunners in the U.S. Senate primaries following the filing of the latest campaigning finance reports, while no clear frontrunners have emerged in the 1st Congressional District primaries.
And if money is any indication, the congressmen in the 2nd and 3rd districts are cruising toward re-election.
Heinrich had the most spectacular fundraising of the quarter. He raised more than $650,000 between July 1 and Sept. 30 and had more than $1.1 million on hand at the end of the quarter. Compare that with the $250,000 raised by his opponent in the Democratic primary, Hector Balderas, who ended the quarter with $465,000 on hand.
The contrast between the frontrunner and other candidates is even starker on the Republican side. Wilson raised more than $530,000 during the quarter and ended it with $952,898 on hand. That compares to John Sanchez raising $164,000 and finishing with $250,000 on hand, and Greg Sowards raising more than $231,000 – including a $185,000 loan from himself – and ending the quarter with $496,000 on hand.
Little-know Republican candidate William S. English and Democratic hopeful Andres Valdez hadn’t raised enough by Sept. 30 – $5,000 – to be required to file finance reports with the Federal Election Commission.
Neither primary is over, but Wilson and Heinrich are in the best positions they could be in at this point in the race.
Senate finance reports aren’t yet online, so I can’t provide you links to the full reports.
Heinrich jumps ahead
Heinrich increased his fundraising significantly over the previous quarter while Balderas’ fundraising dropped. But one lackluster quarter doesn’t necessarily knock Balderas out of the race. It could do just that if it’s followed by another poor fundraising quarter. But it could also be a wake-up call for the anti-Heinrich wing of the party.
Balderas doesn’t have to raise and spend as much as Heinrich to win. He has outsider, Hispanic, and reformer appeal in key areas of the state that will help him.
But Balderas has to do better than this, and his campaign knows it. It didn’t even send out a news release about fundraising. It apparently didn’t want to bring attention to the contrast between the candidates’ fundraising totals.
Heinrich’s campaign was quick to tout his fundraising with a quote from supporter and former U.S. Ambassador Ed Romero:
“The fact that Martin was able to raise this much money in such a difficult environment proves several things, which I have believed for a long time: Martin gives 120 percent of himself to everything he does; no one can outwork Martin; and women and men all across our great state want to see Martin as their next United States senator.”
Wilson impresses
Wilson is in an even better position. Sowards has money to compete but hasn’t found a donor base. His money has primarily been loans he’s made to his own campaign. And Sanchez hasn’t proven that he can raise or spend the money to compete.
The lieutenant governor’s fundraising has been abysmal considering that he’s a statewide elected official. Still, he said he was proud of his work in a news release.
“I am very pleased with the broad base of support we have received,” Sanchez said. “Our campaign is really growing and my conservative message is resonating with voters across New Mexico.”
There’s one potential wild card that could help Sanchez: Nationally, some far-right forces view Wilson as one of the Republican candidates whose campaigns must be derailed. Sen. Rand Paul recently endorsed Sanchez. Will outside groups spend big money to help Sanchez later in the campaign?
Meanwhile, Sowards is plugging away, and he’s pumped enough of his own money into the race – more than $500,000 – that he can’t be ignored.
“There is no doubt that I will have the resources necessary to run a compelling and competitive race,” Sowards said. “The voters of this state will have to make a choice between a true conservative like me or two career politicians who will try to say anything to get elected.”
As she’s done all along, Wilson impressed – and this quote indicates that she knows it:
“Every day the support for my campaign grows, both from people who supported me in 2008, and from a whole lot of people who didn’t. In fact, we have raised more money from more people in the last six and a half months than we did in 2008 over nine months. We’re ahead of where we were in the 2008 cycle even though times are tough for everyone.”
Competitive CD1 primaries
Meanwhile, finance reports revealed fascinating primaries in the 1st Congressional District race – one because of solid fundraising by all three candidates, and the other because both candidates aren’t raising enough.
As expected, Democrat Marty Chávez established himself as a serious candidate with a fundraising quarter that was impressive. He raised $237,292.58, spent $59,644.80, and ended the quarter with $177,647.78 on hand, according to his report.
But Chávez didn’t blow the other candidates out of the water like Wilson and Heinrich did in their Senate primaries. Eric Griego had another solid fundraising quarter, raising $169,585.35 and spending $74,488.59, according to his report. He ended the quarter with $181,006.16 on hand. And Michelle Lujan Grisham, in her first quarter in the race, raised $160,737.99, spent $1,634.56 and ended the quarter with $159,103.43 in the bank, according to her report.
Lujan Grisham did that in six weeks, not the full quarter. She needs to establish herself with a second solid fundraising quarter, but her fundraising was impressive. This could become an unpredictable race that any candidate could win.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Janice Arnold-Jones raised $49,737.73, which included a $5,454.27 loan from herself, according to her report. She spent $24,827.12 and ended the period with $24,910.61 in the bank. Dan Lewis raised $44,540.77, spent $26,108.93, and ended the reporting period with $82,315.77 in the bank, according to his report.
Arnold-Jones isn’t a favorite of the Republican Party infrastructure and has had difficulty raising money in the past, so the fact that she matched Lewis in fundraising this quarter – and that neither raised a lot of money – reveals a party that isn’t too excited about either candidate. It appeared early on that Lewis might win the support of the party infrastructure in Albuquerque, but his drop in fundraising suggests that may not be happening after all. And Arnold-Jones’ outsider campaign is showing some life.
But Arnold-Jones isn’t likely to win the support of the party infrastructure in Albuquerque. That could provide an opening for someone like Jon Barela to enter the race.
Or it could mean the party eventually has to get behind Lewis or Arnold-Jones with more serious financing. New Mexico’s 1st District race is historically one of the most hotly contested in the nation. It’s not one Republicans are likely to give up without a fight.
The 2nd and 3rd district non-races
Meanwhile, in the 2nd District, incumbent Steve Pearce, a Republican, reported raising $190,207.25, spending $71,609.94 and ending the period with $433,961.31. Though two Democrats are launching long-shot bids to unseat Pearce – Evelyn Madrid Erhard and Frank McKinnon – neither had apparently reached the $5,000 fundraising limit by Sept. 30 that required the filing of an FEC report.
In the 3rd District, incumbent Ben Ray Luján, a Democrat, reported raising $115,941.03; spending $44,967.89, including the repayment of $6,787.50 in loans to himself; and ended the quarter with $281,553.36 on hand. No one else has entered the 3rd District race.
A prior version of this posting incorrectly stated that Wilson ended the quarter with $1.3 million on hand. This article has also been updated to include information about English and Valdez.