The U.S. Capitol building (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
In February, a Public Policy Polling survey had Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Heather Wilson by 11 percentage points in a potential U.S. Senate matchup.
No more.
Public Policy Polling’s new survey released last week had Heinrich leading Wilson by only 5 percentage points.
That’s just one example of how next year’s U.S. Senate and presidential races are getting more interesting. Races often tighten over time in New Mexico, and that’s what’s happening now.
For example, in February 55 percent of those surveyed approved of the job President Barack Obama was doing, while 40 percent disapproved. Last week’s poll had those numbers at 50 percent approval and 44 percent disapproval. While Obama led one of the top GOP candidates, Mitt Romney, by 16 points in February, Obama’s lead had shrunk last week to seven points.
As things stand right now, Wilson and Heinrich are the frontrunners in their respective U.S. Senate primaries, Democrats have a slight edge in the Senate general election, and Obama has an advantage over every GOP presidential candidate included in the survey. But the polls reveal that all races are up for grabs.
For example, Hector Balderas held his own in the new Democratic Senate primary poll, winning with the support of 24 percent of Democrats to Heinrich’s 47 percent. Heinrich has much higher name recognition than Balderas – 51 percent didn’t express an opinion about Balderas, while only 27 percent didn’t express an opinion about Heinrich – so for Balderas to start out with the support of 24 percent is significant.
More importantly, in potential matchups with the Republican U.S. Senate candidates, Balderas did about as well as Heinrich. Both led the GOP candidates.
That fact caused Politico to declare that Balderas won the month of June, writing that the primary is “a difficult decision for a party eager to place more Hispanic faces at the top of the ticket.” Balderas further boosted his credibility this morning when he announced he had raised more than $400,000 in his first two months in the race.
Wilson’s toughest primary opponent at the moment, John Sanchez, didn’t do as well as Balderas. Like Balderas, he had the support of 24 percent of those surveyed, but Wilson had the support of five percent more of those surveyed in the GOP poll than Heinrich did in the Democratic poll.
Sanchez has more name recognition than Balderas, and even before the survey was conducted he ran a statewide TV ad promoting his candidacy. Sanchez may not have as much room to climb against Wilson as Balderas does against Heinrich. Still, the poll shows that Sanchez can be a force.
The GOP primary is also interesting because of the 8 percent who said they support lesser-known Greg Sowards. That’s a large enough percentage that Wilson and Sanchez must take Sowards seriously, at least as a potential spoiler, but also as someone they need to knock down before his support grows any greater.
Next year’s primary and general elections are far away, and anything can happen in the interim. But right now, the Senate and presidential contests in New Mexico are shaping up to be hotly contested races that will keep the state in the national spotlight through next November.