President Barack Obama, shown here campaigning in Las Cruces in 2008, is likely to be back in New Mexico campaigning for re-election next year. (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
New Mexico is one of six states that could decide which party wins the presidency and control of the U.S. Senate next year, according to the Washington Post blog The Fix.
The Fix regularly ranks seats most likely to switch parties, and it has the Senate seat being vacated by Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., at No. 10. Of those 10 Senate seats, six – including Bingaman’s – are in states that are “likely to be targeted by the two national parties at the presidential level.”
Not that this is anything new. New Mexico was a hotly contested state in 2008, when there was an open seat and the state was targeted by the presidential campaigns. But 2012 may not be anything like 2008. From The Fix:
“In 2008, President Obama carried five of the six, losing only Missouri – and that narrowly.
“But in the intervening three years, Republicans have captured the governorships of New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia as well as 13 U.S. House seats in those six states combined.
“The question then for 2012 is whether the political atmospherics will more closely resemble 2008 (good for Democrats) or 2010 (good for Republicans).”
Of the race to replace Bingaman, here’s what The Fix says:
“Both Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) and former congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) are seen as strong candidates to replace retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D), but both face Hispanic candidates who hold statewide office – in a plurality Latino state. The jury is still out on just how formidable state Auditor Hector Balderas (D) and Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) will be, but if they can run good campaigns, that will make both primaries very interesting.”