U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich
But nearly a quarter are undecided in poll that surveyed a small sample and has a high margin of error
A new poll finds that U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich enjoys an early lead in a potential Democratic Senate primary against others who are considering running, but the race remains wide open.
In a hypothetical four-way matchup, Heinrich led with 32 percent of the vote to former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish’s 25 percent, U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján’s 15 percent and State Auditor Hector Balderas’ 5 percent.
But 24 of those surveyed remain undecided. In addition, poll surveyed a relatively small sample and has a high margin of error. And the election is more than 14 months away.
Still, considering that Denish was the Democratic Party’s nominee for governor last year and has more statewide name recognition than the other candidates, her standing below Heinrich in the poll is significant, according to the poll memo.
“Heinrich’s 7-point lead over Denish, which is outside of the survey’s margin of error, is impressive considering that Denish previously held statewide office and was the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2010,” the memo states. “Additionally, the poll finds that Heinrich’s support is both broad and deep as he leads with both younger and older Democratic voters as well as with both men and women.”
The poll was conducted by the firm Tulchin Research for Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund – a group that has supported Heinrich in past elections. The survey of 213 likely Democratic voters was conducted between March 8 and 10 and has a margin of error of 6.71 percentage points.
All four Democrats are considering entering the race to replace Democrat Jeff Bingaman in the Senate. No Democrats have formally entered the race.
On the Republican side, former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson has entered the race, as have two less-known candidates: Greg Sowards and William S. English. Others are considering running.