John Thune
Here is the second in my series of predictions about who’s seeking the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 and who isn’t. The first post maintained that former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is not running.
Next in line – South Dakota Senator John Thune.
Washington is all abuzz of late wondering if this relatively understated senator (but soon to be noticed heart throb, a la Scott Brown) will make a run at the GOP presidential primary. Roll Call is not willing to risk making a call on Senator Thune, but is willing to tell us that his team will announce their intentions by the end of the month.
I, on the other hand, am going to predict that Senator Thune is not running in 2012.
To begin, who is Senator John Thune? Senator John Thune is the man who so gloriously won Tom Daschle’s U.S. Senate seat in 2005. He’s a social conservative’s conservative – he professes to be an evangelical christian and received bachelor’s from Biola University.
And, he’s a fiscal conservative’s conservative – he has a M.B.A. and served under the Reagan Administration’s Small Business Administration. Among other things, he also served as the executive director of South Dakota’s Republican Party for two years in the early 90s. You can read more about Senator Thune here.
For many, but not all of course, he’s the dream candidate. He’s a stellar mix of social and fiscal conservatism and he’d be the unassuming underdog in this race. Senator Thune would be one of a few candidates in the 2012 Republican field who did not run in 2008. For many voters, this is a net positive, and I’m sure it’s making his political team salivate.
Why I think he’s not running
Now, back to my prediction. Senator Thune is not running.
First, on what am I basing my information? Answer: an inside source who has known Senator Thune since high school. But let’s be real here – this decision is larger than just the senator. This decision also rides on the senator’s political team.
Now here is the interesting thing. I understand that Senator Thune’s political team is pushing him to run, not so much for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination per say, but for either the 2012 vice presidential nomination or for name visability in the lead up to an actual run at the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.
In my mind the latter makes sense, but there are other ways to get the first. The bottom line is that Thune’s political team is pushing him to run in 2012 with more than one end goal in site.
Bet on Thune running in 2016
At the the moment Senator Thune is flattered and Senator Thune is tempted. But, at the end of the day, Senator Thune will ultimately call the shots and not run. My hunch is that after looking at the fast and burgeoning army of potential 2012 Republican primary contenders at CPAC next week, Thune (with a little prodding from friends not on his political team) will realize that he won’t be able to muster the money or the time to compete in the field this go around.
And, as such, Thune does not run in 2012.
It’s a humble prediction. (That said, I’d put my money on him for 2016.)
Sarah Lenti is the blogger behind NMPolitics.net’s The Savvy. E-mail her at sarah@nmpolitics.net.