President Barack Obama in Las Cruces in 2008. (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
President Barack Obama is well-positioned to win New Mexico’s five electoral votes when he seeks re-election next year, according to a new poll.
The Public Policy Polling survey found that New Mexicans approve of the president’s job performance by a margin of 55 percent to 40 percent. According to a news release, that ties New Mexico “with deep-blue Massachusetts for this third-best showing of any of the 40 states PPP has polled in the last year, after Maryland and his native Hawaii.”
The poll from the Democratic firm tested Obama against several potential Republican candidates and found him leading them all by a wide margin.
“At this rate, New Mexico may not even be considered a swing state,” Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling, said in the news release. “Despite Democrats’ difficulties last year, the West – including Colorado and Nevada – is turning more and more solid blue.”
Public Policy Polling surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from Feb. 4-6. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.
Against Gary Johnson and others
Obama led by a wide margin even in a potential match-up with former N.M. Gov. Gary Johnson – 51 percent to 36 percent. That’s about the same margin by which Obama beat John McCain in New Mexico in 2008.
He led Mitt Romney 53 percent to 37 percent, Mike Huckabee 55 percent to 36 percent, Newt Gingrich 56 percent to 35 percent, and Sarah Palin 62 percent to 33 percent.
“Most of the difference in the matchups can be explained by independents, even though they make up only 16% of the electorate,” the news release states. “President Obama posts large-enough leads of 25 (against Johnson) to 34 points (versus Huckabee) with independents, but against Palin, he takes them by an astounding 51. Except Palin, all the Republicans steal more Democratic votes than the president does self-identified Republicans.”
That last sentence is interesting: Democrats were more likely to cross over in this poll, matching what they did in 2010 in electing Republican Susana Martinez to be governor. That’s perhaps the only piece of good information for Republicans in this survey.
The poll also noted this about ethnicity:
“Romney wins white voters by four points, and Johnson by three. The president ties Huckabee with them, beats Gingrich by one, and Palin by ten. But Hispanics give Obama margins of 35 (against Johnson) to 52 points (versus Palin).”
So none of the potential GOP presidential candidates included in the survey has the ability to draw Hispanic voters the way Martinez did in the governor’s race, at least at this time.
More about those surveyed
As I did on Tuesday when Public Policy Polling released the portion of this survey related to U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, I’m going to point out some demographics again:
Of those who were surveyed, 55 percent said they are Democrats, 29 percent said they are Republicans and 16 percent said they are independents. As I reported Tuesday, the state’s registered voters include 47 percent who are Democrats and 32 percent who are Republicans.
However, of those who were surveyed, 55 percent said they voted for Obama in 2008 and 39 percent said they voted for McCain. That’s fairly accurate. Obama won New Mexico by 15 percentage points, 57 percent to 42 percent.
But the last Public Policy Polling survey of New Mexico, conducted in September, had this as its breakdown: 49 percent Democratic, 35 percent Republican, and 16 percent independent or other.
That’s a pretty big shift away from Republicans between the two polls. And the last was dead on in one race: It had Martinez leading in the governor’s race by eight points, and Martinez won by eight points.
For whatever that’s worth. You decide what it means. I’m just pointing out numbers.
You can read more on the new poll here.