U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M. (Photo by Heath Haussamen)
A new poll finds that U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M., is in a good position win re-election, should he choose to seek another term in office.
But if Bingaman doesn’t seek another term next year, an open Senate seat in New Mexico could be a toss-up, depending on who is running, the Public Policy Poling survey finds.
The poll found Bingaman with a 56 percent approval rating, while 27 percent disapproved of the job he’s doing. That made him more popular than all but four of the 77 senators whose districts Public Policy Polling surveyed in the last year.
“Jeff Bingaman is a near lock for re-election,” Dean Debnam, president of the Democratic firm, said in a news release.
Bingaman hasn’t announced his 2012 plans, but his spokeswoman says he will likely make an announcement in March. He did hold a campaign fundraiser in October and raised about $400,000.
Public Policy Polling surveyed 545 New Mexico voters from Feb. 4-6. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.
Potential match-ups
Gary Johnson
Former Republican Gov. Gary Johnson fared best against Bingaman in a potential match-up, with those surveyed giving Bingaman an 11-point advantage, 51 percent to 40 percent. Some 44 percent of those surveyed view Johnson favorably, while 32 percent view him unfavorably.
“Gary Johnson could be competitive in an open-seat situation, but whether some of his unorthodox views would allow him to get the Republican nomination is a different question,” Debnam said.
But Johnson hasn’t said he’s exploring a Senate run. Instead, all indications are that he’s considering running for president.
Former U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, who is considering running for Senate, was the Republican who did second-best against Bingaman in the survey. The senator had a 19-point advantage against Wilson, 56 percent to 37 percent.
U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, R-N.M., was down 23 points in a potential match-up with Bingaman. Pearce lost a battle for an open Senate seat in 2008 to Democrat Tom Udall, and many think he’s unlikely to run for Senate again.
Take Bingaman out of the equation, and the situation is dramatically different.
For example, put Johnson up against U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and Johnson leads by 1 point, 44 percent to 43 percent. Put Johnson up against U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján, D-N.M., and Johnson has a 5-point advantage.
Wilson and Pearce both trail Heinrich and Luján in potential contests, but not nearly as much as they trail Bingaman.
About those surveyed
Of those who were surveyed, 55 percent said they are Democrats, 29 percent said they are Republicans and 16 percent said they are independents. For whatever it’s worth, the state’s registered voters include 47 percent who are Democrats and 32 percent who are Republicans.
I’m not saying the Public Policy Polling model is incorrect. I’m just pointing out numbers. It’s always difficult to verify the accuracy of polling. It’s not uncommon for some independents to describe themselves as Democrats or Republicans when surveyed.
On the flip side, of those who were surveyed, 55 percent said they voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 39 percent said they voted for John McCain. That’s fairly accurate. Obama won New Mexico by 15 percentage points, 57 percent to 42 percent.
You can find more on the poll here.