Joseph Cervantes, left, and Ben Luján (Photos by Heath Haussamen)
The battle over who is going to be speaker of the New Mexico House of Representatives could have a significant impact on the redrawing of the state’s congressional districts later this year.
The process of reworking the state’s political boundaries begins once new Census numbers are released on April 1. If Ben Luján, D-Nambé, remains speaker of the House, there’s reason to expect him to push for changing the boundaries to protect his son, the congressman from Northern New Mexico’s 3rd Congressional District. That would likely involve shifting some Republican voters into Southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District.
If Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, becomes speaker, on the other hand, it’s reasonable to believe he’s going to want to keep the 2nd District from becoming more Republican.
The speaker is the second most powerful official in state government and will have significant influence over redistricting. The once-a-decade process commonly degrades into a partisan battle, and is often about self-preservation as well. With that in mind, here’s how each candidate for speaker might seek to influence the process:
With Luján, incumbents might be safer
Luján’s son is U.S. Rep. Ben Ray Luján, who is beginning his second term after a surprisingly contested race against a little-funded Republican candidate in November. Luján ended up defeating Tom Mullins by winning 57 percent of the vote – not nearly enough to feel good about in a district that has long been considered a safe Democratic stronghold. What if he had been challenged by a polished, well-funded opponent?
In addition, there’s constant pressure from some Albuquerque-area Democrats to make the 1st Congressional District – usually one of the most hotly contested in the nation – safer for U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M.
All of that means some northern Democrats will be pushing to make the 1st and 3rd districts more Democratic – and they’ll hope to make a deal to accomplish that by giving the 2nd District’s representative, Republican Steve Pearce, more of the state’s GOP voters.
They could, hypothetically, move Clovis from the 3rd District to the 2nd – giving Luján and Pearce both greater edges in their districts – and, potentially, move part of Valencia County from the 2nd District to the 1st to give Heinrich a greater Democratic majority and help Pearce even more.
If Luján is speaker, those who would like to make that happen are likely to have more influence over the process.
And such shifting could create a scenario beginning with the 2012 election in which New Mexico’s House districts are all much more incumbent-friendly.
With Cervantes, districts might stay more competitive
Cervantes long expressed interest in being the congressman from Southern New Mexico. He jumped into the 2nd District race briefly two years ago before jumping back out. He hasn’t publicly said much about becoming a congressman since, so whether he is personally interested in keeping the seat in play isn’t known.
Regardless, though Cervantes is a fiscal conservative, he’s a Democrat who leans to the left on issues related to the environment, law enforcement, and hot-button social topics such as abortion, stem cell research, civil unions and domestic partnerships. If he’s speaker, those who want to keep the 2nd District in play so Democrats can try to retake it are likely to have more influence.
While many Democrats are discouraged that Democrat Harry Teague only served one term in Congress before Republicans retook the seat, there are others who aren’t ready to give up. Don’t expect Cervantes to be willing to make the congressional district in which he lives more Republican to give Democrats up north stronger majorities in their districts.
That means, if Cervantes is speaker, there’s a greater chance that all three districts will remain at least as contested as they are currently.
Battle expected to play out publicly on Tuesday
The speaker battle is expected to play out publicly on Tuesday when the session begins. Shortly after noon, speaker nominations will be made and votes will be taken. Rep. Andy Nuñez, D-Hatch, has already said he plans to nominate Cervantes, who has been seeking votes from members of both parties.
Luján has also been asking Republicans and Democrats alike for support. Sources say the race remains up in the air and within a couple of votes. There will be heavy, behind-the-scenes politicking between now and Tuesday at noon.
Who knows whether Luján or Cervantes will win the vote? What’s certain is that the implications for New Mexico’s congressional district boundaries are significant.