Susana Martinez
Republican Gov.-elect Susana Martinez opposes tax increases, cuts to education and Medicaid, and taking money from the permanent funds to deal with the state’s fiscal crisis.
That leaves cuts to the other 40 percent of state government as the way to balance the budget. But two fiscally conservative Democratic lawmakers say Martinez’s plan is not realistic, and they expect her to shift gears soon.
“I think once you get the campaign people away from her… I think she’s going to look at it in a different light and recognize that we’re in a serious situation,” said Sen. John Arthur Smith, D-Deming. “I don’t know that she’s going to want to go around to the district attorneys and tell them that prisons are going to have to be closed.”
Rep. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces, agreed.
“Having known Susana for almost 20 years, I am confident that she’s going to approach the job pragmatically,” he said. “If she takes a pragmatic and constructive role, I am confident we can find the best balance for the state, but that balance is going to mean a prompt re-evaluation of promises made during the campaign.”
Santa Fe is going to be very different
Martinez’s victory over Democrat Diane Denish, coupled with the GOP’s gain of eight seats in the House, means that Santa Fe is going to be very different when the Legislature convenes in January.
Democrats will still control the House, but that chamber will be more conservative. Some committees will no longer have Democratic majorities.
“You’re talking about a significant change in the dynamics,” said Rep. Keith Gardner, R-Roswell and the minority whip.
Asked if Martinez’s campaign pledges related to the budget are realistic, Gardner said he believes it’s possible to balance the budget without raising taxes and without cutting anything but waste from education and Medicaid programs. He said such waste can be cut without slashing classroom funding or affecting the delivery of Medicaid services.
But that’s different than Martinez’s pledge to not cut the education or Medicaid budgets. Gardner said he believes Martinez intends to keep her promise.
“She means what she says and says what she means,” Gardner said “That’s been my experience.”
Gardner said the severity of the budget problem isn’t known. Many lawmakers have accused the Richardson administration of not being honest with them about the financial situation, and Martinez has said she expects to discover big problems when she takes office.
I was unable to speak with Martinez on Tuesday night to ask her about the budget.
Budget cuts are likely, tax hikes aren’t
With a more conservative House and a Republican governor come January, here is the reality:
- Future budget cuts are likely. Martinez will find many Democratic allies, including Smith, with whom she can can agree on making cuts – though the topic of holding some programs harmless will be a point of contention.
- Tax hikes appear to be off the table. Many progressives have argued that the state has already cut enough and needs to raise revenue through new taxes and fees or closing loopholes. But Martinez will find plenty of Democratic allies in her opposition to that – and progressives in the House were dealt a huge blow with the losses of some of their leaders on Tuesday.
- Taking money out of some of the permanent funds – pools of invested state money that generate revenue – is a proposal being pushed by Senate Majority Leader Michael Sanchez and others. Neither Smith nor Martinez supports the proposal.
‘It’s going to be a real revelation for her’
Where does that leave the state? Can budget cuts alone restore the state’s fiscal health? Not if Martinez is only willing to cut from the 40 percent of the state budget that isn’t devoted to education and Medicaid, Smith said.
“I think once she is elected and starts looking at the financial situation of the state and the magnitude of what happens if you hold education and Medicaid harmless, I think it’s going to be a real revelation for her,” Smith said.
“The Senate will work in a bipartisan fashion, trying to carve out a responsible budget,” he said. “I don’t think anyone in the Senate wants to lay people off, but the bottom line if it’s not meted out fairly is that she’s going to be facing additional furloughs and layoffs.”
Cervantes said lawmakers are ready to work with Martinez.
“I think legislators are prepared to try and forge a constructive, working relationship with Gov. Martinez,” he said. “There are some legislators on the Republican side who are very realistic and pragmatic… and I’m confident Susana will rely on their advice.”
Smith said the state is “far beyond, economically speaking,” a time in which partisan politics should prevail.
“I think we’re going to find somewhere in between where we can pull together, keep people employed and move the state forward without imposing a tax increase,” he said.