Cervantes considers coalition overthrow of Luján

The talk at the Roundhouse has shifted from the election to a potential coalition overthrow of House Speaker Ben Luján that would be led by Rep. Joseph Cervantes, D-Las Cruces.

That’s because, with GOP gains in the House last week, it would only take three Democrats voting with Republicans to elect a coalition speaker. Cervantes met with House Minority Whip Keith Gardner last week to talk about the possibility of forming the first such coalition in the House since 1980.

Nothing has been decided, sources say, and Cervantes becoming speaker with the support of a coalition of Democrats and Republicans is only one possibility being discussed. A Democratic caucus overthrow of Luján is another possibility, though who would lead such an effort – and if such an effort will materialize – isn’t clear.

Luján has already said he has no intention of stepping aside.

Come January, the House will have 37 Democrats and 33 Republicans. Four Southern New Mexico Democrats who have stood up to Luján in the past – Cervantes, Mary Helen Garcia of Las Cruces, Dona Irwin of Deming and Andy Nuñez of Hatch – are being mentioned as potentially willing to partner with Republicans to make Cervantes speaker.

With the incoming governor being a Republican, the Senate already controlled by a coalition of Democrats and Republicans, and the House having eight more Republicans in January than it does today, Santa Fe is going to be noticeably more conservative in January. But Republicans like Gardner and Susana Martinez are still going to need Democratic allies in the House to help them pass bills.

Because of that, Cervantes could wield a great deal of power in January regardless of who is speaker. He is perhaps the most prominent leader and dealmaker among the group of House Democrats who have been willing to partner with members from across the aisle in the past.

He and a handful of others could have the power to decide what legislation passes the House.

What is Cervantes thinking?

Cervantes isn’t talking openly about his intentions right now, but he has been discussing the possibility of a coalition with key members, including Gardner.

A number of Democrats have been asking why Cervantes would consider making such a politically risky move (the last such coalition in the House lasted only two years). Many Democrats would view Cervantes as a traitor if he partnered with Republicans to become speaker.

There are a few key reasons:

• Luján nearly lost his primary battle in June against Carl Trujillo – his first serious challenger in at least two decades. The once nearly invincible speaker is seriously weakened.
• Cervantes has been one of the leading reformers in the Legislature in recent years. In a year in which Martinez successfully won the governor’s race by tying her opponent to corruption, the fact that the House Democratic caucus has continued to support a speaker plagued by his own ethical issues has to be concerning to members like Cervantes.
• With Republicans winning races this year against two Democratic candidates tied to corruption in the eyes of voters, Diane Denish and Mary Herrera, some House Democrats fear they will be tied to corruption in 2012 if they allow Luján to remain speaker.
• There’s a regional aspect to things as well. Incoming Gov. Martinez is from Las Cruces. The handful of Democrats who partner with Republicans to control the Senate include John Arthur Smith from Deming and Mary Kay Papen from Las Cruces. If a similar coalition formed in the House, Southern New Mexico would wield a great deal of power.

Caucus meetings coming up

Both caucuses must decide what they want to do before it would be clear that Cervantes could become a coalition speaker.

First, House Republicans must make a decision when they meet next weekend. Do they want to form a coalition that will give them greater influence next year and help Martinez’s agenda? Or do they want Luján to be speaker for the next two years, so the only Democratic stronghold left in Santa Fe is still led by someone with ethical issues when the 2012 election rolls around?

In other words, are Republicans more interested in getting things done now or trying to win more House races in two years? There’s no certainty that the GOP members will be united, though pressure from the incoming governor might help unite them.

Second, Luján plans to hold a Democratic caucus the weekend of Nov. 20. He’s hoping to consolidate power quickly. Will any Democrat emerge to challenge him in caucus?

Cervantes may, but one reason he’s talking about a coalition appears to be that Democrats are thus far unwilling to internally challenge Luján. Will the threat of a potential coalition push Democrats to replace Luján on their own? Time will tell.

Democrats being mentioned as possible challengers to Luján in caucus include Cervantes, Majority Leader Ken Martinez – who was unsuccessful in his challenge of Luján in 2006 – and Rick Miera, chair of the House Education Committee.

Cervantes and Ken Martinez are close friends, and many believe Cervantes would stand down if Ken Martinez agreed to challenge Luján. But even that isn’t certain. Lots of people are angling right now and others are waiting to see how things play out before deciding what they want to do.