Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich
A new, independent poll has Democrat Martin Heinrich leading Republican Jon Barela by 7 points in the 1st Congressional District race, but that doesn’t mean the news is all good for Heinrich.
The Albuquerque Journal poll, conducted by Brian Sanderoff’s Research and Polling Inc., had Heinrich leading 48 percent to 41 percent. However, if only the most likely voters were included – those who voted in both 2006 and 2008 – the candidates were tied at 44 percent.
Sanderoff said that could be good news for Barela because this is a non-presidential election year in which turnout is expected to be lower. The higher the turnout, the better Heinrich’s chances.
Sanderoff’s company surveyed 403 registered likely voters from Sept. 27-30. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.