Dianna Duran
The first publicly released poll of the secretary of state race – an internal poll conducted for the campaign of Republican Dianna Duran – has Duran leading Democratic incumbent Mary Herrera by 12 points.
Duran leads 46 percent to 34 percent, with 20 percent undecided. The poll, conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies for the Duran campaign, surveyed 800 likely voters between Oct. 14 and 18 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
There’s been a lot said lately about the potential inaccuracy of polls that don’t survey those who only have cell phones. Duran’s poll includes 100 cell-phone interviews, according to the poll memo.
The poll states that among the 11 percent surveyed who had already voted, Duran led 50 percent to 39 percent. Among those who planned to vote on Election Day, Duran led 45 percent to 35 percent.
Duran led among independents 38 percent to 26 percent and among “soft” Democrats 45 percent to 36 percent.
Mary Herrera
Many have speculated that Republicans have a good chance of winning the secretary of state race this year, for the first time in decades, because of scandal that has plagued Herrera and her predecessor, Rebecca Vigil-Giron. But the poll is the first tangible indication that Duran may have a shot at victory.
“While things look good and the trend is definitely in Dianna’s favor, in New Mexico, especially in a race we haven’t won in 82 years, you don’t take anything for granted,” said Rod Adair, Duran’s campaign manager and a Republican state senator from Roswell.
Herrera has not returned a phone call seeking comment on Duran’s poll, but she did respond to an e-mail to write that her own polling shows her leading Duran. She also said her campaign is currently conducting a new poll.
But Herrera didn’t provide specific numbers or a poll memo and hasn’t responded to a follow-up request for those.
Media coverage has helped Duran
Adair said the Duran campaign’s strategy has been to “try to get as much earned media as we can.” He’s referring to free media coverage, such as radio and TV interviews and articles in newspapers and on blogs.
There’s certainly been a lot of coverage, much of it related to scandal in Herrera’s office. Her predecessor is under indictment, charged with 50 counts including money laundering, fraud, soliciting or receiving kickbacks and tax evasion in the alleged theft of millions of dollars.
And Herrera has faced her own scandal. Among the more visible problems was a situation in 2009 when the office’s Web site crashed, taking an under-development campaign reporting system with it. Even after the Web site came back online, questions about security remained.
In addition, three former employees have alleged potential criminal activity in Herrera’s office and talked with law enforcement. Among the allegations laid out by former Elections Director A.J. Salazar is that Herrera ordered exempt employees to collect signatures for her re-election bid at a meeting held during work hours, that she was improperly soliciting donations from contractors doing business with the office to help fund a training, and that she retaliated against him after he tried to stop those potentially illegal actions.
Salazar resigned on his own, but the two others – former Office Manager Manny Vildasol and office spokesman James Flores – were fired after they went to the FBI with their allegations, prompting additional allegations that they were fired in retaliation for whistleblowing. That’s an allegation Herrera denies.
Herrera says the allegation that she ordered exempt employees to collect signatures at a meeting held during work hours is “untrue.” She also says employees who collected signatures did it on their own time.
Most recently, an e-mail from Herrera to Flores surfaced that appears to show that she asked Flores to help her re-election campaign by getting involved in the GOP and discouraging Republicans from running a candidate against her.
Those situations have earned lots of statewide media coverage, as has the fact that five Democratic county clerks from around the state have endorsed Duran over Herrera.
“We’ve been successful, I think by any measure, in getting earned media,” Adair said.
‘Nothing’s ever in the bag’
In addition to the free media, Duran, like Herrera, has been traveling the state to appear at parades and rallies and talk with voters.
In addition, both recently unveiled TV ads (view Duran’s here; Herrera’s has been removed from YouTube), but Duran’s media buy is larger.
Adair said the Duran campaign has raised about $110,000 on its own, has raised an additional $50,000 or more with the help of the state GOP and the campaign of Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez, and has received an additional $8,700 from a committee formed by former GOP gubernatorial candidates Allen Weh and Doug Turner.
About $125,000 of that went to putting ads on TV, Adair said.
“It’s been a very positive thing for our campaign to be associated with Susana’s campaign,” he said. “And the state party’s been tremendously supportive.”
Still, Adair said it’s too soon to say the race is over.
“For a Republican in New Mexico, nothing’s ever in the bag,” Adair said.