Dueling polls have Martinez leading by 1 or 8

With a week remaining before Election Day, dueling polls released by the gubernatorial candidates find that Republican Susana Martinez is either leading Democrat Diane Denish by one point, or by eight points.

Monday’s sparring over polls began when Denish Campaign Manager Oren Shur released an internal poll that found that the race has tightened to a virtual tie.

Martinez led 46 percent to 45 percent in the survey of 603 likely voters conducted from Oct. 20-24. The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

“Going into the final week of the campaign, the gap has closed,” Shur wrote in an e-mail accompanying the poll memo. “…as Election Day approaches, we believe more New Mexicans will view Martinez as a typical Republican politician who will side with the big corporations, not their families.”

The Martinez campaign was quick to release its own recent internal polling showing the Republican maintaining a sizeable lead.

Martinez led 50 percent to 42 percent in the survey of 800 likely voters that was conducted at the same time as the Denish poll. The margin of error in Martinez’s poll was plus or minus 3.48 percentage points.

“Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish continues to rotate pollsters, releasing results from whichever gives her the most favorable – not necessarily accurate – number,” Martinez Campaign Manager Ryan Cangiolosi said in a news release. “Denish’s recent release is nothing more than another dishonest attempt by a desperate politician to fool donors into investing in a failing campaign.”

Other recent polls

The most recent independent poll of the race, released earlier this month, had Martinez leading by 12 points. Except for Denish’s internal polls, all recent polling – internal Martinez polls and independent polls – has shown Martinez leading by several points (click here, here and here for recent polls showing Martinez ahead).

That doesn’t necessarily prove that Denish is wrong. But it means her pollsters are probably using different methodology than every other polling company that has recently surveyed of the race.

Denish has released polls from two different Democratic polling companies in recent weeks that have painted a different picture of the race. Earlier this month, one of the polls had Martinez leading by 3 points and another had her leading by 1 point. Last month, an internal Denish poll had Martinez leading by 5 points.

But even as those polls have been released, Martinez’s internal polls have continued to match with independent polling of the race, and the conventional wisdom is that Martinez has a significant lead.

Martinez’s new poll

Much has been written lately about how polls can be skewed if they don’t intentionally survey people on cell phones. Martinez’s new poll, conducted by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, included 100 cell phone interviews.

Among the poll’s key findings:

• “In an election where turnout will play a key role, Republicans are much more motivated to vote,” the poll memo states. “Fully 69% of Republicans rate their interest in the election as a ‘10’ compared to only 55% of Democrats on a ten-point election interest scale.” That could help explain why more Republicans are voting early and absentee this year than they have in the past.
• Martinez continues to lead among independents, 55 percent to 31 percent.
• Among “highest-interest” voters, Martinez is ahead by 17 points, 56 percent to 39 percent.
• Some 55 percent of those surveyed said they view Martinez favorably, while 38 percent said they view her unfavorably. Only 45 percent of those surveyed said they view Denish favorably, while 49 percent said they view her unfavorably.

Denish’s new poll

Denish’s new poll was conducted by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. In the company’s polling, Denish has been gaining on Martinez for weeks. Martinez led by 5 points on Aug. 15 and Sept. 15, by 3 points on Oct. 4, and by 1 point in the new poll.

The poll memo states that there has been “significant consolidation with self identifying Democrats who now support Denish 84-11 percent and Hispanic Democrats who now support Denish 83-11 percent.”

Shur said the tightening of the race is due to several factors:

• The campaign’s recent TV and radio ads have attacked Martinez for supporting a tax exemption for out-of-state corporations. Shur said those ads are “not only resonating with persuadable voters, but also energizing the base.”
• Denish delivered “two strong TV debate performances in the past week,” Shur wrote.
• Democrats are working hard to get people out to vote.
• Former President Bill Clinton’s recent rally for Denish also “helped energize the base,” Shur wrote, adding that Denish has held more rallies and been more visible than Martinez in recent weeks.

The bottom line

We’ll get at least one more independent poll of the race – an Albuquerque Journal poll that will be released Sunday. Keep an eye out for it. And keep in mind that, to date, independent polls of the race match more closely with the results from Martinez’s internal polls, not Denish’s.