Jon Barela, left, and Martin Heinrich
Republican Jon Barela is leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich in the 1st Congressional District race by 2 points, according to an internal poll released today by Barela’s campaign.
Barela leads 49 percent to 47 percent, with 3 percent undecided and 1 percent refusing to state their preference, according to the polling memo released by the Barela campaign.
The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted Sunday and Monday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
“We’ve said from the beginning that this was going to be one of the most competitive races in the country, and with one week to go, these numbers prove exactly that,” Barela said in a news release.
The Heinrich campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Barela’s poll is the first of the race released since early October, when Heinrich led in an independent poll by 7 points, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Barela’s poll comes as Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg has moved the 1st District race from being ranked as “leans Democrat” to “toss-up/tilt Democrat.” Politico recently ranked the race as the seventh-hottest U.S. House contest in the nation.
The race certainly has heated up. With the exception of one rogue poll released in July, polls of the race have shown Heinrich leading, but the race has definitely become more competitive in recent weeks.
According to Barela’s poll:
- The Republican leads by a wider margin of six points – 52 percent to 46 percent – among voters who rated their interest in the race as being an 8, 9 or 10 on a scale of 1-10.
- Some 75 percent of Republicans surveyed rate their interest as a “10,” while only 59 percent of Democrats rate their interest that high.
- Republican gubernatorial candidate Susana Martinez leads Democrat Diane Denish in the 1st District by 9 points, 53 percent to 44 percent.
The bottom line about the 1st District race, from the Barela poll memo authored by Public Opinion Strategies’ Nicole McCleskey:
“This very well could be New Mexico’s November surprise. With voter enthusiasm in his corner, Barela looks to have an advantage heading down the home stretch.”
Update, 9:55 p.m.
The Heinrich campaign released this statement from Manager Alan Packman:
“While Jon Barela continues to line his pockets with money from big oil and the out of state special interests who want to buy this election, Martin is working day and night on behalf of the people of central New Mexico – putting their interests ahead of the special interests.”