Rove, Lockhart expect big GOP gains in November

The final session of the Domenici Public Policy Conference at times felt like a contentious panel discussion on a cable news channel as Karl Rove and Joe Lockhart debated national politics and Sam Donaldson worked hard – but often unsuccessfully – to steer the discussion.

Rove, a senior adviser to former President George W. Bush, and Lockhart, former President Bill Clinton’s last press secretary, agreed on at least one thing: Voters are angry and are going to send a lot of elected Democrats home on Nov. 2.

“People are mad as hell,” Lockhart said. “People are economically insecure… and it’s gotten to the point where they don’t see the light at the end of the tunnel.”

Rove said there are two sources of the angst – a lack of jobs and an increase in government spending and big deficits.

“They are mad as hell, and they’re going to take it out on the Democrats this fall because they’re the ones who perpetrated the spending.”

The debate turned into an argument from there, with Rove blaming President Barack Obama for not reaching out to Republicans in the bipartisan way he promised and Lockhart blaming Republicans for totally obstructing the Democrats’ agenda in an attempt to take back power.

They debated the health-care reform bill, the Iraq war and other topics, at times talking over each other and ignoring attempts by Donaldson, an ABC newsman, to keep things under control.

Lockhart was more often willing to concede points to Rove, and at one point he admitted that Democrats have practiced obstructionism in the past for political reasons as well. Rove, on the other hand, didn’t concede points, spoke quickly and at length and pulled poll numbers and other statistics from years ago out of his head to defend his points.

The midterm election

When Donaldson finally got the two to talk about the upcoming midterm election, both agreed that Republicans will gain ground. Donaldson said Republicans need to win 39 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate to take control of each.

Lockhart predicted that Democrats will retain control of the Senate but lose 5-8 seats. He didn’t make a prediction about the House.

Rove predicted that Republicans will gain 7-8 seats in the Senate in November and take control of the Senate in 2012. He said the GOP will gain 37-55 seats in the House.

Perhaps the most striking number cited by Rove – Lockhart later said this scares him – is that millions more Republicans are voting in primaries this year than Democrats. So far it’s almost 4 million more.

That hasn’t happened in a non-presidential election year since 1926, Rove said. And while 82 million people voted in the midterm election four years ago, Rove predicted that 90 million to 95 million will vote this year – which would be the largest turnout in a non-presidential election since the 1880s.

Gubernatorial races

Talking with the media after the debate, Rove predicted big gains for Republicans in governor’s races across the nation. He acknowledged backing Allen Weh over Susana Martinez in New Mexico’s GOP primary, calling Weh a “close personal friend,” but also cited Martinez among those who could make the year so notable for the Republican Party.

Rove predicted that Republicans will gain 8-10 governorships and 500 seats in state legislatures across the nation – which will be critical in redrawing the nation’s congressional district boundaries. But he said gubernatorial races are important for another reason.

It’s conceivable, Rove said, that in 2011 the nation will have two Indian-American governors, both Republican; its first female Hispanic governor, referring to Martinez, a Republican; and seven Republican female governors, which he said would be the most from either party at any time in American history.

That, Rove said, “could really help strengthen the Republican Party for the long haul.”

‘We’re all in this country together’

Following the debate, Donaldson praised Rove and Lockhart for keeping it civil. He said that was in the spirit of former U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici.

“This debate got hot and heavy at times, but never mean,” Donaldson said. “We can have our debates… but we’re all in this country together and we all succeed or fail as one.”

You can watch the debate here.