New polls reveal good news for Heinrich, not other Dems

Update, Sept. 29, 8:50 a.m.

Daily Kos’ Markos Moulitsas e-mailed to say my assertion that the site removed the polls is “ridiculous.”

“We publish every single poll that we run, no matter what the results show,” he said.

I explained to him that the links under which the polls were originally published are now dead, except for the link to the 1st District poll. I told him I didn’t understand why the links changed, couldn’t find the polls using the site’s search engine, and knew others who had the same problems. I asked if he could send me the correct links to the polls.

He directed me here, where you’ll find all three congressional polls. He didn’t explain why the links changed.

As for the poll of the governor’s race, which isn’t currently on the site, Moulitsas said it was “leaked accidentally” on Monday and will be “officially” released later this morning. However, as I reported earlier, thanks to a source who took screen shots you can view the full Denish/Martinez poll results, Denish favorability results, Martinez favorability results and poll demographics.

Original post

Polls released Monday by the left-leaning Web site Daily Kos reveal good news for Democratic 1st Congressional District candidate Martin Heinrich but bad news for the Democratic candidates for the state’s other congressional seats and governor.

The results of the polls:

• In the governor’s race, the poll found Republican Susana Martinez leading Democrat Diane Denish by 8 points, 50 percent to 42 percent.
• In the 1st Congressional District race, Heinrich leads Republican Jon Barela by 7 points, 50 percent to 43 percent.
• In the 2nd Congressional District race, the race is essentially tied, with Republican Steve Pearce leading Democrat Harry Teague by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
• In the 3rd Congressional District race, Democrat Ben Ray Luján leads Republican Tom Mullins by 6 points, 49 percent to 43 percent.

The polls were conducted on Saturday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling. The margin of error was 4.2 percent in the congressional polls and 2.7 percent in the gubernatorial poll.

The polls place Martinez and Heinrich at the magical 50 percent mark, and Luján right on the verge of reaching it with his opponent several points back. That’s good news for all three of those candidates. However, for Luján the news is still bad because his is a seat most expect to be safely Democratic, not one that’s seriously contested.

Things could change in the next few weeks, but Martinez, Heinrich and Luján appear to be in very good positions. It’s much more difficult to peel support away from a candidate than it is to win over undecided voters, and their opponents will have to do both to win.

On to more specifics:

Teague versus Pearce

The new poll is bad news for Teague because recent polling had been showing a trend in his direction. In the last publicly released poll of the race, Teague led by 7 points.

Pearce’s 1 point lead over Teague in the new poll is well within the margin of error, but it’s safe to say that, if the poll is accurate, the race remains a toss-up rather than one that leans in Teague’s direction.

Daily Kos has removed all of the polls except the one that favored Heinrich from its Web site (it’s a liberal site, remember?), so I can’t link directly to the polls or talk about much of the raw data. But here are some highlights of the Teague/Pearce poll from The New Mexico Independent:

• Teague had the support of 21 percent of McCain voters, while Pearce had the support of 14 percent of Obama voters.
• White voters preferred Pearce by 21 points, but Hispanic voters preferred Teague by 19 points.
• Some 47 percent viewed Teague favorably, compared to 40 percent who viewed him unfavorably. Pearce’s favorability/unfavorability rating was 44-44.

Heinrich versus Barela

Barela is a good candidate, but as the poll reveals, he’s failed to tear down Heinrich, at least thus far. You can view the details of the poll here.

Some highlights:

• Heinrich is leading among moderates 58-39 and has the votes of 90 percent of liberals, while Barela has the support of 77 percent of conservatives.
• Barela leads among independents by 6 points.
• Heinrich leads among Hispanics by 7 points, 49 percent to 42 percent.
• Heinrich leads among voters in ever age category except those over 65.

Luján versus Mullins

Luján’s lead is fairly solid because he’s so close to the 50 percent mark, but it’s a little shocking to see his underfunded Republican opponent only 6 points behind. This is a closer race than most people realized. Imagine if Republicans were paying attention to this race and pumping national money into it.

So while there’s good news for Luján in the fact that he’s so close to 50 percent, the poll is bad news for him because the race is closer than most people realized.

Some highlights of the poll, from The Independent:

• Hispanics prefer Luján by more than 2-1.
• Mullins leads among white voters by 11 points.
• Luján leads among women by 14 points, while Mullins leads among men by 5 points.

Martinez versus Denish

Another Democratic poll released on Monday had Denish and Martinez tied, but the Daily Kos/PPP poll matches with two polls released last week that had Martinez leading 50 percent to 40 percent and 49 percent to 44 percent. Bet on the three polls that are fairly consistent with each other being closer to accurate.

Highlights of the Daily Kos/PPP poll, from The Independent:

• Some 20 percent of Democrats said they would vote for Martinez, while 8 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Denish.
• Martinez leads big among white voters – 56 percent to 38 percent – while Denish leads slightly among Hispanics – 48 percent to 44 percent.
• Denish also leads by 4 points among moderates.
• More voters have a favorable opinion of Martinez than Denish.

The 1st District poll gives us insight into how Martinez and Denish are doing in that district. Some CD1 highlights:

• Denish leads by 1 point, 48 percent to 47 percent.
• Denish leads among women; Martinez leads among men.
• Martinez leads among independents by 17 points, but Denish leads among moderates by 6 points.
• Martinez leads among white voters by 6 points. The two are tied among Hispanic voters. Denish leads by 29 points among voters identified as “other” than white or Hispanic.
• Younger voters lean toward Denish, while older voters lean toward Martinez.

Update, 7:55 a.m.

Thanks to a source who took screen shots, you can view the full Denish/Martinez poll results, Denish favorability results, Martinez favorability results and poll demographics.