Pat Rogers
Martin Heinrich’s refusal to debate Jon Barela on KOAT-TV set off the usual campaign and then media response of Heinrich “ducking” or “chickening out.” Eventually the Heinrich camp saw the light or felt the heat and did agree to “consider” debates on the two remaining TV stations if “acceptable” terms and conditions could be “worked out.”
I got to tag along with Jon’s campaign manager, Estevan Lujan, for the negotiations with the stations and Mr. Heinrich’s team. What follows are my personal observations, the Chicken Mc Nuggets from those discussions.
Congressional District 1 has featured many close races over the years. Although the voter registration very much favors the Democrats, the voters of CD 1 have a long history of crossing party lines to vote for the best person to represent the district, regardless of party affiliation. Not only does Mr. Heinrich enjoy this head start in voter registration, he began the race with a substantial money advantage. Political action committees from the usual out-of-state, liberal suspects are very generous to both his campaign and the “unrelated” related liberal 527 groups.
Despite these advantages, many of Mr. Heinrich’s votes, government health care, government bailouts and government growth in general appear to be coming home to roost. Congressman Heinrich’s vote for Speaker Pelosi and his support of the Pelosi/Reid agenda for big government and the negative impact on New Mexico’s jobs and the economy is not something he wants to address. The Heinrich campaign strategy is obvious with the big-dollar TV commercials featuring his jogging shoes and an effort to tie Jon Barela to a president who was first elected 10 years ago.
The other factor motivating the Heinrich strategy of avoiding real debates was the historical lesson. New Mexico voters can usually spot a phony. If given the chance, voters can also spot a politician who is not ready for prime time. The lesson that Democrat operatives learned the hard way in 2006 is now engrained – avoid serious debates if you have a weaker candidate.
The CD1 race was Patsy Madrid’s to lose in 2006 and the televised debate with Heather Wilson featured the favored Madrid fumbling a very simple and direct question from Heather Wilson. In a close election, a debate can make the difference. In a debate, a real debate, questions from the candidates themselves can tell you a lot.
A predictable strategy
If the 2010 issue is the economy and jobs, the differences between the candidates is jarring. Mr. Heinrich is not anxious to talk about his unwavering support for new government regulations and thousands of pages of new laws. The impact on New Mexico businesses struggling to provide health care and jobs is staggering.
And how would he explain his never ending support for more regulations and more government requirements, given his personal history and his difficulties in completing basic paperwork to obtain a business license or properly registering and reporting his lobbying jobs for various extreme liberal organizations? If voters have the chance and the knowledge, voters are probably going to prefer someone who has actually created jobs and has successfully worked in private businesses.
The Heinrich campaign’s strategy was predictable, understandable and transparent. Sitting on a pile of cash and a history of disasters, why not avoid a debate or at least delay any debates? And if you have to agree to a joint appearance, for heaven’s sake, don’t allow a real debate with the candidates asking direct and simple questions of each other.
The Jon Barela campaign strategy was simpler: “anytime, anywhere, from now until the election.”
The opportunity to judge for yourself
In Mr. Heinrich’s corner was his aptly named campaign manager from the bowels of the Democratic beltway, Mr. Packman. Assisting Mr. Packman was another paid campaign staffer, Whitney Potter, formerly the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) communications/propaganda director.
Round 1 resulted in a partial victory for the Heinrich campaign, due to serious errors on behalf of the person accompanying Estevan Lujan to the negotiations. Memo to file: In the future don’t let Rogers argue that the candidates should be allowed to ask direct questions of each other on the basis that the reporters are all liberals and will only ask softball questions of Congressman Heinrich. And describing the format suggested by the station as a “snoozefest” is not helpful, either.
The Heinrich team successfully avoided direct candidate questions in the format for the first TV “debate” appearance.
Round 2 went to the viewers and the voters. A much wiser Barela team was less argumentative. (“Yes, Estevan, I promise to keep my mouth shut this time.”) Dick Knipfing of Channel 13 overruled the repeated attempts of the Heinrich campaign team to avoid any direct give and take between the candidates. Channel 13’s format will be the traditional debate moderated by Dick Knipfing.
So get the popcorn, chicken, duck, Big Mac or vegan special dinners ready. If you tune in to the debates, you can have the opportunity to judge for yourself. It is an important election for Congressional District 1, New Mexico and the United States.
Rogers is the Republican National Committeeman for New Mexico. He was general counsel to the N.M. Republican Party for many years. He has represented the Republican Party of New Mexico in several election and redistricting proceedings, the George Bush for President Campaign, Representative Heather Wilson, Presidential Candidate Ralph Nader and many other candidates over the years. Rogers is a partner in a large New Mexico law firm and he specializes in litigation. He is a board member and a past president of the New Mexico Foundation for Open Government.