Republican state House candidate Nate Gentry
A new poll of likely voters in state House District 30 shows that an area of Albuquerque that went to George Bush in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 is leaning back to the right this year.
The poll, conducted for the campaign of Republican state House candidate Nate Gentry, shows Gentry leading Democratic incumbent Karen Giannini by nine points, 44 percent to 35 percent, with 20 percent of voters undecided. And in the gubernatorial race, it shows Republican Susana Martinez leading Democrat Diane Denish by 17 points, 55 percent to 38 percent.
The poll is important because House District 30 is a historically right-leaning district that went to Obama in 2008 – a year in which Democrats also took control of every seat in the state’s congressional delegation. The poll adds to the evidence of a shift back to the right in the Albuquerque area that was also seen in a recent survey of the 1st Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich and Republican challenger Jon Barela.
The House District 30 telephone survey of 250 likely voters was conducted Monday and Tuesday by the GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, according to the polling memo. It has a relatively high margin of error of 6.2 percentage points, but there’s still a clear trend to the right among those surveyed.
In fact, 69 percent of those surveyed said the Democratic-controlled state is “headed off on the wrong track,” while 22 percent think the state is heading in the right direction, the polling memo states. Some 57 percent said they view Martinez favorably, while 26 percent view her unfavorably. Denish, meanwhile, is viewed favorably by 44 percent of those surveyed and unfavorably by 47 percent.
More voters in the district are registered Democrat than Republican – 43 percent Democrat to 38 percent Republican – but that’s further to the right than the overall state registration numbers, which are 50 percent Democrat and 32 percent Republican.
Bush won the district with 54 percent of the vote in 2004. Obama won it in 2008 with 55 percent of the vote.
‘Very encouraging for the Gentry campaign’
Karen Giannini
Many, including me, attribute Giannini’s upset of then-Republican State Rep. Justine Fox-Young in 2008 to the Obama wave that swept the Albuquerque area. In the NMPolitics.net monthly newsletter that goes to qualifying donors, I’ve ranked Giannini as the most endangered incumbent in the state this election cycle. The new poll backs that ranking up.
Gentry’s name recognition in the district is already almost as high as Giannini’s – 33 percent for Gentry to 35 percent for Giannini. And while most voters have no strong opinion of either candidate, Gentry’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are better – 16 percent favorable and 1 percent unfavorable to Giannini’s 12 percent favorable and 6 percent unfavorable.
“Gentry has already achieved a level playing field in name ID, a critical variable in state house races,” the polling memo states. “… An early lead for a challenger in this political environment is very encouraging for the Gentry campaign.”
The Gentry campaign provided the wording of the two ballot questions in the poll:
- “If the election for New Mexico State House of Representatives were being held today, for whom would you vote between (rotate) Nate Gentry, Republican, and Karen Giannini, Democrat?”
- “If the election for governor were being held today, for whom would you vote between (rotate) Susana Martinez, Republican, and Diane Denish, Democrat?”